339
FXUS62 KTAE 270524
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
124 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY FOSTERING SOME
COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. FOR
THAT REASON, LOWERED TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE GA ZONES JUST A BIT.
DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR PRETTY EFFICIENT
WARMING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM, A STRONGER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A PARENT LOW WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY, AND THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AN AIR
MASS THAT WILL STILL BE MARGINALLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE WILL COME ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
FROM SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT THERE IS NOT YET A CLEAR CONSENSUS
ON HOW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL OVERLAP. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
CONTINUED VFR CONDS THRU PERIOD WITH PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.
EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS PREVAIL, THOUGH AN AFTN
SEABREEZE INDUCES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO ECP/TLH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY WIND SURGES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND
3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE. FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOSTERS A DRY AIRMASS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY FLOW STARTS A MOISTENING TREND ON THURSDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BE MORE APPARENT WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY AS
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PUSHES FROM SE TO NW. EXPECT CRITICALLY
LOW MIN RH ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLIES PROVIDES MORE EFFECTIVE
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT. RAIN CHANCES
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THERE ARE NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 54 82 61 79 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 58 77 64 75 / 0 0 0 30
DOTHAN 53 82 60 78 / 0 0 0 30
ALBANY 51 83 59 81 / 0 0 0 20
VALDOSTA 54 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 54 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 61 72 64 72 / 0 0 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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