338
FXUS62 KTAE 270818
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN, SO
OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS CLOCKED AROUND NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY. BY THIS EVENING,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC, AND OUR LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BECOME EASTERLY. THE
FIRST BITS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST OVERNIGHT TO THE
I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR PATCHY
FOG IN THOSE LOCALES AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST, TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND
DEAMPLIFYING.
MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND,
TAPPING INTO A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES
WILL STEADILY MOISTEN, REACHING THE 1.3-1.6 INCH RANGE ON SUNDAY.
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MODERATE IN A FEW INLAND POCKETS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY RUN IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY TO
POSE A SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP,
MAINLY FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THAT WE DO HAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO GUSTY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL QUICKLY PUSH SYSTEMS FROM WEST TO EAST. ONE FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ON UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TAIL END OF
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION AROUND MONDAY NIGHT.
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MORE RESPECTABLE 30-40 KNOT RANGE AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPS BY TO OUR NORTH, AND THE WIND PROFILE SHOW
SOME DEEP-LAYER VEERING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE TO
WESTERLY ALOFT. THE INCOMING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE A GOOD FOCUS
FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, AND THE
LATEST EXTENDED OUTLOOK FROM SPC ISSUED WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL
HAS THE EQUIVALENT OF A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OUTLINED ACROSS
OUR AREA.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL START DEVELOPING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK EAST OF FLORIDA, WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING THE MAXIMUM
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS OUR UPPER
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND WE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S OR
HIGHER. THIS COULD BE ONE OF OUR EARLY ROUNDS OF UNCOMFORTABLY
WARM WEATHER THIS SPRING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
CONTINUED VFR CONDS THRU PERIOD WITH PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.
EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS PREVAIL, THOUGH AN AFTN
SEABREEZE INDUCES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO ECP/TLH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING TO NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE, WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CLOCK AROUND AND
BECOME EASTERLY LATE TODAY. AS IS COMMON WITH EASTERLY FLOW, THERE
WILL BE FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG NIGHTTIME WIND SURGES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
WEEKEND, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT FRONT WILL REACH THE WATERS AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
ONE MORE DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW RH NEARLY AREAWIDE DESPITE A
PREVAILING EAST WIND. WARM CONDITIONS SPAWN AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
THAT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE I-10 CORRIDOR, THUS INDUCING A
SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT FROM THE COAST TOWARDS THE FL STATE LINE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT GOOD TO FAIR DISPERSIONS.
AN INCREASE IN SE WINDS PROMOTES A MOISTENING TREND WITH MIN RH
AIMING TO REBOUND INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY. LOOK
FOR HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR DOWN TO
THE EAST FL BIG BEND. DRY WEATHER HOLDS ON TO CONCLUDE THE WORK
WEEK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND, STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 83 56 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 80 60 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 81 54 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 79 51 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 81 53 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 84 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 61 73 64 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...HANER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page