395
FXUS62 KTAE 272315
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
715 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE, WHICH WILL ONLY BRING MORE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP SOME DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE, LOW-
LEVEL SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETREATS
EASTWARDS. WARM CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE EVENING IT WILL
GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING BUT ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR WEST
COMBINED THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, OR A MAINTENANCE OF
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY, BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
SOME OF THE DRIER GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE WAVE
LIKE THE EURO/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
QUICKER AND KEEPS MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
REGARDLESS OF THE PROGRESS OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT'S SHORTWAVE,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO REMAIN IN PLAY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE
MOST/IF-ANY SEVERE THREATS, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AND THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SIMILAR TO A TYPICAL
SUMMER AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
COVERAGE REDUCES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT AS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT MOVES SOUTH, EXPECT BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE ONGOING TO OUR WEST MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OUT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS TO
MAINTAIN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST, BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
FORCING LIFTING OUT AND THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENING, THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE GREATER SEVERE
THREAT WILL PERSIST. FOR NOW, THE WHOLE REGION IS IN A SLIGHT RISK
ON THE CURRENT DAY 5 SPC OUTLOOK, BUT FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN THAT
OUTLOOK WILL COME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN GUIDANCE THAT HAS A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKE THE CANADIAN, SO LEFT A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED VSBYS AFFECTING THE VLD TERMINAL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME IS LOW. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 10KTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 15-20KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TO NEAR BERMUDA BY THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE,
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CLOCK AROUND AND BECOME
EASTERLY LATE TODAY. AS IS COMMON WITH EASTERLY FLOW, THERE WILL
BE FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG NIGHTTIME WIND SURGES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
WEEKEND, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT FRONT WILL REACH THE WATERS AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT, PRECEDED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINING A SPEED OF
AROUND 10-20 MPH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE HEALTHY RANGING FROM 4K FT TO ABOVE 6K FT.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE MODERATE TO EXCELLENT THROUGHOUT THE
DISTRICTS. EXPECT THE HIGHEST DISPERSIONS TO BE ALONG THE I-10 AND
I-75 CORRIDORS, AS WELL AS THE WIREGRASS REGION IN SE ALABAMA.
THE BETTER NEWS IS THAT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE LOW T MID 30S PERCENT ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A WETTING RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 55 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 60 78 63 77 / 0 0 0 20
DOTHAN 54 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 51 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 54 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 53 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 62 73 64 74 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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