948
FXUS62 KTAE 281417
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
TWEAKED THE DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. AS
A RESULT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S AND LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STILL WELL
WEST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIMPS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THANKS TO A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM PROMPTS RETURNING RAIN CHANCES IN
ADDITION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL (45-55% POP) IS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FL
STATE LINE. THICK CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT OFFSETS WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES - FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THESE VALUES ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT A DOZEN DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE
SULTRY LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN CHANCES TEMPORARILY DWINDLE AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW MOVING PAST THE GREAT LAKES WHILE DRAGGING A
FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR, LIFT/CONVERGENCE FROM THE FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER
TROUGH, AND SOME EARLY-SPRING INSTABILITY.
A LARGE 15-29% RISK PROBABILITY (EQUIVALENT TO A DAY 1-3 SLIGHT,
LEVEL 2 OF 5) ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE SPC DAY 5 OUTLOOK - VALID 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY.
THE SPATIAL & TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS OUTLOOK IMPLIES GREATER-THAN-
NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL NEBULOUS ON TIMING AND ANTICIPATED
HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OVER SE AL INTO PARTS OF SW GA WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WPC IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK - VALID 12Z MONDAY
TO 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SEVERE AND/OR FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY EARLY TUESDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN STAYS PROGRESSIVE WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS A
NOTABLE WARMING TREND AS 500-MB HEIGHTS INCREASE TO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OR GREATER, PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR KTLH. HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON. WHAT'S OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE IS THE RIDGE'S POSITION/STRENGTH COMPARED TO THE
WAVEY MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF & CMC SHOWS A
STOUT RIDGE WHOSE AXIS TAKES ON A SW-NE ORIENTATION AND THEREFORE
SHUNTS A COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT CONVECTION TO OUR NW. BY
CONTRAST, THE GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS A WEAKER, MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED
RIDGE, WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONT TO SAG INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
REGARDLESS, THE WEATHER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
IS SHAPING UP TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) WAS REPORTING A SUSTAINED EAST WIND NEAR
18 KTS WITH 2-FT SEAS AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
CWF SYNOPSIS: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS FOSTERS EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WEST OF APALACHICOLA TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGES ARE EXPECTED OFF THE NATURE
COAST INTO APALACHEE BAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, THE
SURFACE LOW'S ARRIVAL SUPPORTS RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CAUTIONARY BOATING CONDITIONS. A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND FAIRLY
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT LOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT DOES NOT LOOK
IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING OUR RECENT DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER. MONDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
ARRIVES AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERALL, SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, AUCILLA
RIVER - LAMONT CONTINUES TO FALL, BUT REMAINS IN ACTION STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 81 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 78 64 77 66 / 0 0 0 20
DOTHAN 82 61 80 62 / 0 0 10 30
ALBANY 83 61 81 62 / 0 0 0 20
VALDOSTA 84 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 84 59 84 64 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 73 64 73 66 / 0 0 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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