993
FXUS62 KTAE 291900
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE WINDS ARE GUSTY AT
TIMES, WINDS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ONGOING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI BUT ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN LOWER
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT POP FORECAST. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE UNDER 30% TONIGHT AND LIKELY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA (IF THEY EVEN
DEVELOP AT ALL).
FOR SUNDAY THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND ZONES IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. WITH A SEABREEZE LIKELY
DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND RELATIVELY COOL NEAR-SHORE WATERS
STILL AROUND, THE BEST INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS INLAND
ZONES OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE COULD CREATE POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST IN THE STRONGEST STORMS TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
BETTER FORCING FOR THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, THE PARENT LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
GIVEN THAT THE GREATEST FORCING WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA, IT'S QUESTIONABLE HOW WELL THIS LINE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF IN
OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SO IF STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE ISN'T MUCH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LACKING, SO IT APPEARS
THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT SOME
HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5). IT'S STILL TOO EARLY FOR EXACT
TIMING. THE EURO IS A FASTER OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA) POINT TOWARD A MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.
AHEAD OF THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S. SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. MONDAY'S HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR RETURNS
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER OUR MARINE AREA TUESDAY. WITH
SOME LINGERING WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND PWATS STILL IN THE
1.2 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE, A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. BEYOND
TUESDAY, STOUT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
US. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO LIKELY THE HOTTEST OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. NO
RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET BUT MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY
AT WESTERN TERMINALS OF DHN/ECP WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS TLH/ABY/VLD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY MENTIONED VCSH WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION WAS HIGHEST (MOSTLY AT ECP/DHN).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE EXERCISING CAUTION THIS EVENING BEYOND
20 NM FROM APALACHICOLA WESTWARD WITH SEAS AROUND 6 FEET.
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA ON MONDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT LIKELY WASHES OUT OVER OUR
MARINE AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING
INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND WITH IT LIKELY A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL LIKELY SEE WETTING RAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS OUR FLORIDA
COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 0.5-1.5
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES. THE HIGH-END OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES
FROM AROUND PANAMA CITY TO ALBANY AND POINTS NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS, THIS IS LIKELY TO NOT CAUSE FLASH FLOOD OR RIVER FLOOD
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 80 66 82 / 20 40 10 60
PANAMA CITY 66 77 67 77 / 30 30 10 70
DOTHAN 62 80 65 79 / 30 50 20 80
ALBANY 63 80 65 81 / 30 70 30 80
VALDOSTA 64 81 66 84 / 20 70 30 50
CROSS CITY 64 81 63 82 / 20 50 30 20
APALACHICOLA 66 74 66 75 / 30 20 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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