871
FXUS62 KTAE 301006
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
606 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6-1.7" ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH IS NEAR THE DAILY MAX FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING, A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL WANE ACROSS
THE AREA, AND FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS TRYING TO MOVE INLAND FROM
OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY'S STORM SYSTEM IS THE
SPC UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK - MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
INCREASES IN THE TORNADO (10-14%) AND DAMAGING WINDS (30-44%)
PROBABILITIES LARGELY DROVE THE RISK UP. A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS
IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
PRECLUDES MAJOR CONCERNS.
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OR QLCS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE & SE AL LATE MONDAY MORNING, PUSH THROUGH THE FLINT RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN EXIT EAST OF
SE FL BIG BEND BY AROUND SUNSET. SUCH A STORM MODE SUGGESTS DAMAGING
WINDS AND LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SEMI
DISCRETE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES AND/OR HAIL, ESPECIALLY IF THEY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY MOIST, ADEQUATELY SHEARED, AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
THESE OVERLAPPING FACTORS SUPPORT THE SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS, WHICH TENDS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR EARLY IN THE YEAR. A DAYTIME PASSAGE DOESN'T HELP
MATTERS GIVEN THE AID OF DIURNAL HEATING. STILL, THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF "FAILURE MODES" THAT MATERIALIZE SUCH AS PRECEDING
CONVECTION OR THICK CLOUD COVER INHIBITING INSTABILITY.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING MONDAY'S QLCS, THOUGH PATHCY
FOG IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES UP TO ABOUT 20% ARE IN
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE SOME SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM, OR DARE WE SAY, TOASTY CONDITIONS DEFINE THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST! SUCH
READINGS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN EARLY SPRING. FOR
PERSPECTIVE, THE CURRENT 30-YEAR (1991-2020) CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR IS USUALLY LATE APRIL OR EARLY MAY!
A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL STRIP NOTABLY
COOLER BY SEVERAL DEGREES, ALBEIT MORE HUMID. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WON'T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF - WELL OVER A DOZEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWER CEILINGS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, LOCATION, AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW. FOR TONIGHT, LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL. IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) WAS REPORTING A SUSTAINED SE WIND NEAR
14 KTS, 3-FT SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
CWF SYNOPSIS: SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TODAY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE LEGS AND
BAY WATERS. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE
MARINE ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITS EAST OF APALACHEE BAY BY
THAT EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS, WATERSPOUTS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
MOSTLY PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THANKS TO A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THURSDAY WEST OF
APALACHICOLA WHEN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WETTING RAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TOMORROW. MARGINAL
RISKS (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ARE IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY.
ISOLATED NUISANCE TO FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 1.5". MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, AUCILLA RIVER -
LAMONT IS STILL IN ACTION STAGE, BUT CONTINUES TO SEE ITS LEVELS
DROP.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 66 82 65 / 50 10 60 30
PANAMA CITY 76 67 77 66 / 40 10 70 20
DOTHAN 79 66 79 60 / 70 10 90 20
ALBANY 80 65 80 61 / 70 20 80 30
VALDOSTA 81 65 83 65 / 70 30 60 40
CROSS CITY 80 65 81 66 / 70 30 10 50
APALACHICOLA 73 68 75 67 / 30 10 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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