505
FXUS62 KTAE 301808
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6-1.7" ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH IS NEAR THE DAILY MAX FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING, A DECENT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT, THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL WANE ACROSS
THE AREA, AND FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS TRYING TO MOVE INLAND FROM
OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY'S STORM SYSTEM IS THE
SPC UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK - MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
INCREASES IN THE TORNADO (10-14%) AND DAMAGING WINDS (30-44%)
PROBABILITIES LARGELY DROVE THE RISK UP. A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS
IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
PRECLUDES MAJOR CONCERNS.
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OR QLCS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE & SE AL LATE MONDAY MORNING, PUSH THROUGH THE FLINT RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN EXIT EAST OF
SE FL BIG BEND BY AROUND SUNSET. SUCH A STORM MODE SUGGESTS DAMAGING
WINDS AND LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SEMI
DISCRETE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES AND/OR HAIL, ESPECIALLY IF THEY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY MOIST, ADEQUATELY SHEARED, AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
THESE OVERLAPPING FACTORS SUPPORT THE SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS, WHICH TENDS TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR EARLY IN THE YEAR. A DAYTIME PASSAGE DOESN'T HELP
MATTERS GIVEN THE AID OF DIURNAL HEATING. STILL, THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF "FAILURE MODES" THAT MATERIALIZE SUCH AS PRECEDING
CONVECTION OR THICK CLOUD COVER INHIBITING INSTABILITY.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING MONDAY'S QLCS, THOUGH PATHCY
FOG IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES UP TO ABOUT 20% ARE IN
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE SOME SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
WILL BE COMMON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM, OR DARE WE SAY, TOASTY CONDITIONS DEFINE THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST! SUCH
READINGS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN EARLY SPRING. FOR
PERSPECTIVE, THE CURRENT 30-YEAR (1991-2020) CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR IS USUALLY LATE APRIL OR EARLY MAY!
A SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP THE COASTAL STRIP NOTABLY
COOLER BY SEVERAL DEGREES, ALBEIT MORE HUMID. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WON'T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF - WELL OVER A DOZEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS CIGS LOWER, EXPECT LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS. AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW
MORNING, VSBYS AND CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AHEAD OF A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) WAS REPORTING A SUSTAINED SE WIND NEAR
14 KTS, 3-FT SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
CWF SYNOPSIS: SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TODAY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE LEGS AND
BAY WATERS. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE
MARINE ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITS EAST OF APALACHEE BAY BY
THAT EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS, WATERSPOUTS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
MOSTLY PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THANKS TO A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THURSDAY WEST OF
APALACHICOLA WHEN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WETTING RAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TOMORROW. MARGINAL
RISKS (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ARE IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY.
ISOLATED NUISANCE TO FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 1.5". MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, AUCILLA RIVER -
LAMONT IS STILL IN ACTION STAGE, BUT CONTINUES TO SEE ITS LEVELS
DROP.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 82 64 85 / 10 50 50 20
PANAMA CITY 67 76 65 79 / 20 70 40 10
DOTHAN 66 78 62 82 / 10 90 30 20
ALBANY 64 80 61 83 / 20 80 50 20
VALDOSTA 66 83 65 85 / 20 60 60 20
CROSS CITY 63 81 64 83 / 30 20 40 20
APALACHICOLA 67 75 65 77 / 20 50 40 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 11
AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-
128-134.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR FLZ112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ735.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ735.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 11
AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-
770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...IG3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page