217
FXUS62 KTAE 310526
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
126 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
OVERALL, NO LARGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
GULF WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM LAND. FOG, SOME
DENSE, HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, SO HAVE MADE
THE START TIME FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COAST TO START
NOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THE FOG GETS
THIS EVENING, SO HAVE ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE ADDITIONAL AREAS
UNDER THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FOG TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS/WEAK
STORMS AS BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM STORMS TO OUR WEST WITH LOW TO MID
BROKEN AND OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS HAMPER CONVECTION. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WE'LL SEE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY DEVELOP PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG AS WINDS
DECREASE TO NEAR CALM.
TOMORROW A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A POTENTIAL QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE 2000 J/KG. WHEN
IT COMES TO LOW-LEVEL ROTATION 0-1KM SRH, USED TO DETERMINE TORNADO
POTENTIAL, LOOKS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT TOMORROW.
WHEN LOOKING AT MESOCYCLONE POTENTIAL 0-3KM SRH ALSO DECREASES
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. LOOKING AT WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AT
925MB AND 850MB, WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GENERALLY IN THE
30- 40 KT RANGE WITH UP TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AT
850MB. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THESE WINDS THEY
COULD MIX DOWN VIA CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. A POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTOR TO THIS EVENT WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW PROLONGED INTO
THE MORNING WOULD FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS LAST. IF WE GET
LIMITED EROSION OF ONE OR BOTH THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL. WE'D NEED TO SEE SOME CLEARING AHEAD
OF THE LINE TO SEE OUR CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
INCREASE. AS OF THIS FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THIS POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUR REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW (LEVEL 3 OF 5) WITH ALL HAZARD TYPES
POSSIBLE. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ENDING BY
SUNSET TOMORROW.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AFTER MONDAY'S SQUALL LINE, WHICH WILL LIKELY OUTPACE THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT, SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
GONE ANY REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
FOR TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST/STRONG
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED
INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE QUICK
NATURE OF THE FRONT BUT SOME SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD ALLOW
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO STICK AROUND AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT
AROUND A 15% CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING SEASON SO FAR
AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD EASILY HIT 90 DEGREES LATER NEXT WEEK.
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH
MORNING, LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEERS SYSTEMS WILL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
MESSY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING, AND CEILINGS
WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. WHILE ALL ZONES ARE IN A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES WITHIN 20 TO 30 NAUTICAL MILES. A BREAK IN THE RAIN
AND STORMS IS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BRING A
CHANCE FOR STRONGER, POSSIBLY SEVERE, STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AFTER THE FRONT, A LIGHTER PERIOD OF WINDS AND SEAS
IF FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING CAUTIONARY OR NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY, ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION. MINRH VALUES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCHES IS FORECAST, GENERALLY HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THE PANHANDLE, AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE
OR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST
AFTER THIS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 5 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 82 64 85 65 / 50 30 20 0
PANAMA CITY 76 65 79 66 / 70 40 20 0
DOTHAN 78 62 82 65 / 90 20 20 0
ALBANY 80 61 83 63 / 90 40 20 10
VALDOSTA 83 65 85 65 / 50 40 20 10
CROSS CITY 81 64 83 63 / 10 20 20 0
APALACHICOLA 75 65 77 66 / 40 30 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ735.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ735.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ730-735-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...OLIVER
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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