847
FXUS62 KTAE 260554
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
154 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
THEY APPROACH OUR AREA. HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REGION, ACCORDING TO ALL THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
OVERNIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SE ALABAMA.
TOMORROW WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL MECHANISMS
SUCH AS BUOYANCY AND THE SEA BREEZE. CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECTS
THERE TO BE A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE FL/AL STATE LINE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR STORMS TO FIRE OFF OF.
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
ALONG THE FRONT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. POPS RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLIDE. AT THIS
TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT'LL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AND TOWARDS
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
DURING THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND LESS. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5" WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY OF 500-1200 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR IS
LOW AROUND 20 KTS, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT FORCING AND
CAPPING LIFT. EVEN THOUGH THE PARAMETERS ARE THERE, THE WARM AND
DRY MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP POPS NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. BY
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES,
WEAKENING THE CAP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
UPPER CLOUD DECK FROM WEST TO EAST. TERMINALS TO BE AFFECTED BY
THIS ACTIVITY IS ECP/DHN WHERE IFR CONDS OR LOWER ARE FCST. SITES
FARTHER TO THE EAST ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE FLT RESTRICTIONS,
THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF
THE SW LATER TODAY WITH AN AFTN SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO ENCROACH ON
ECP/TLH. ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA AT DHN FROM 21-24Z TO ACCT
FOR LOW-END CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN ITS VICINITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DURING
THE WEEKEND, EXPECT THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST. FOR NEXT WEEK, EXPECT LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH SEAS
MAINLY AROUND 1 FOOT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND DAILY
CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG, POCKETS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS,
AND UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WITH A DIURNAL SEABREEZE.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS KEEP MIN RH ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS,
OR 35-40% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY, THEN SWITCH OUT OF THE NE MAINLY NORTH
OF THE FL STATE LINE.
EXPECT HOT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS FORECAST INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE EVEN HOTTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW 90S (ISOLATED MID 90S).
A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTH MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF VIA MODEST
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE FRONT LIKELY INTERACTS FAVORABLY WITH THE SEABREEZE(S).
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 93 65 93 / 10 10 10 20
PANAMA CITY 67 86 67 87 / 10 10 0 10
DOTHAN 65 91 65 92 / 10 20 10 10
ALBANY 65 91 66 90 / 10 20 10 20
VALDOSTA 67 93 66 92 / 10 20 20 40
CROSS CITY 61 91 63 93 / 10 10 0 30
APALACHICOLA 66 82 67 83 / 10 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...OLIVER
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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