848
FXUS62 KTAE 261726
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
126 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE MORNING FOG HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT FOR THE MOST PART.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, BUT OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
UNCHANGED. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK THIS
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO THE WEST OF THE FLINT VALLEY.
A SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH REGION. IT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ALABAMA
WIREGRASS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED AS IT JOINS FORCES WITH THE PANHANDLE SEABREEZE
FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WELL UNDER 1.5
INCHES, ONLY WEAK OR LOCALLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY, AND
ANEMIC DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS. SO ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE THE SHORT-LIVED PULSE VARIETY AND ON THE
WEAKER SIDE.
THE OTHER INTEREST WILL BE EARLY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING, AND
AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL
BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF WILL
SUPPORT A HEALTHY PANHANDLE SEABREEZE, ADVECTING A SHALLOW LAYER
OF 65-70F DEWPOINTS ONSHORE. AS OF 3 AM CT, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BONIFAY WESTWARD, AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE INLAND
PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A NEAR- REPEAT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST, WITH ITS REFLECTION PASSING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL PASS ACROSS
GEORGIA DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, GENTLY ERODING THE MID-
LEVEL CAP OF WARM AND DRY AIR. A WASHED OUT AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ADD SOME LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OVER THE ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA WIREGRASS REGIONS, AND THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL ADD
FURTHER FOCUS. PW VALUES WILL MOISTEN A LITTLE COMPARED WITH
SATURDAY, THOUGH REMAINING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. SO ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL AFFECT A GREATER
AREA ON SUNDAY, ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE INLAND FL BIG BEND AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, COMPARED WITH TODAY.
ON MONDAY, A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A DOWNSTREAM TURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST, FORCING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INLAND FROM
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REALLY ENHANCE THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN THE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY,, WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON
TUESDAY AND LOSE DEFINITION, AS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS
WILL DIMINISH COVERAGE OF PM CONVECTION.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND A RENEWED CAP OF
WARM DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY, WHILE
MAINTAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
AMBLING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS OUR REGION, AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ERODE THE CAP
OF WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DEEPER-LAYER LIFT, WHILE
PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ON FRIDAY.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT A DAY-TO-DAY INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAILS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS AROUND
035-050 EXPECTED. ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP NEAR DHN THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS ACCOUNTED FOR WITH A PROB30 FROM 21-00Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MAINLY TLH, DHN, AND
ECP WITH IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS. POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT ECP, AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. VLD
COULD BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE, SO MADE MENTION OF BR WITH NO
CATEGORICAL CHANGES. VFR CONDITIONS RESUME AFTER 13-14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAKING THE NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
THE MAIN DRIVER OF WIND. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION TOWARD BERMUDA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A TURN TO EASTERLY FLOW. MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
FRESH NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WITH A
GROWING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE AND CONFINED NEAR THE PANHANDLE SEABREEZE. SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE BIG
BEND REGION. ON MONDAY, A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY,
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR FLORIDA PANHANDLE DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 66 92 66 / 0 10 20 10
PANAMA CITY 83 68 86 68 / 10 10 10 0
DOTHAN 87 65 90 66 / 20 10 20 10
ALBANY 88 65 90 66 / 10 0 20 10
VALDOSTA 91 66 92 66 / 10 0 20 20
CROSS CITY 88 62 91 64 / 0 0 10 10
APALACHICOLA 80 67 82 67 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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