727
FXUS62 KTAE 270632
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY MOIST TODAY. SATELLITE-DERIVED PW
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1.3-1.4 INCH VALUES STRETCHING FROM NEAR
DESTIN TO ALBANY. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A CAP OF WARM AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL
GET PARTIALLY ERODED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH GEORGIA LATE TODAY, AND DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL REACH TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. LASTLY, WE
WILL HAVE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS SPREADING INLAND WITH THE PANHANDLE
SEABREEZE, AND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWEST ACROSS GEORGIA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. SO A LOT OF
MARGINAL FACTORS WILL GET A BOOST FROM THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW-
LEVEL FOCUS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG OR
PROLONGED, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING.
IN ADVANCE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT, IT WILL BE HOT. HIGHS WILL
RISE WELL ABOVE 90F OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND REGION.
REMEMBER THOSE ROUTINE SUMMER HOT WEATHER TIPS, SUCH AS STAYING
HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND PLANNING OUTDOOR WORK
DURING THE COOLER MORNING AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIGHTENS AND BECOMES NORTHERLY AS IT
GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS, THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A
BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN. WHEN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE BEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
COUNTIES AND FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE IS LIKELY
ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES, ESPECIALLY THE APALACHEE BAY SEABREEZE
IN THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND.
ADDITIONAL COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, BUT AS THE BACKGROUND
FRONT BECOMES MORE ILL DEFINED AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD, EXPECT LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND
IN THE UPPER 80S AND AROUND 90, BUT WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING IN SOME AREAS ACROSS GA WILL AT LEAST SEE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE
AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ELONGATED WESTWARD SO EXPECT FLOW
TO BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON
HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES. NONE OF THESE NEXT FEW
SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, BUT AT THIS POINT
WE'LL WELCOME ANYTHING WE CAN GET GIVEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ENCROACHING ON THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S.
SOME 90 DEGREE DAYS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
THROUGH SUNRISE, LOW CLOUD AND PERHAPS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A DHN-TLH LINE, INCLUDING ECP. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SHALLOW, AND THEREFORE QUICK TO LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT STARTING 1-2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP, AIDED BY THE SEABREEZE FRONT FROM THE GULF COAST, AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SPREADING SOUTHWEST THROUGH GEORGIA. HAVE
INCLUDED LOWER CONFIDENCE MENTIONS OF THUNDER UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAKING THE NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
THE MAIN DRIVER OF WIND. FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING OVER THE
PROTECTED WATERS OF THE EMERALD AND FORGOTTEN COASTS. STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TOWARD BERMUDA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A TURN TO EASTERLY FLOW. NOCTURNAL INCREASING IN EASTERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG, BUT STORMS WILL NONETHELESS COME
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE TWO FOCUS AREAS WILL BE OVER THE
INLAND PANHANDLE BECAUSE OF THE SEABREEZE, AND OVER THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY, THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SLIPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA DISTRICTS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN AGAIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AND LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEK,
BUT AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH AND NO
SIGNIFICANT RIVERINE OR HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE D0 -
ABNORMALLY DRY - CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 66 89 66 / 20 10 40 10
PANAMA CITY 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 10 0
DOTHAN 89 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 10
ALBANY 90 66 85 65 / 30 40 40 10
VALDOSTA 92 67 87 66 / 30 40 60 10
CROSS CITY 91 63 90 64 / 10 10 40 10
APALACHICOLA 81 67 81 70 / 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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