321
FXUS62 KTAE 280108
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
AS THE SEA BREEZE MARCHES ITS WAY INLAND COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
AFTERNOON HEATING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST,
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA (TURNER, BEN HILL, AND IRWIN
COUNTIES) DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COUNTIES.
SOME OF THE FOG IN THE PANHANDLE, JUST LIKE THE LAST FEW MORNINGS,
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER
INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
COLLIDING WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THUS, THE GREATEST FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR EASTWARD INTO
THE BIG BEND. PWATS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, EVEN IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
FORCED BY THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH ABOUT A 30-60% CHANCE FOR MOST PLACES. REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF STORMS, SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF
ABOUT 20 KT AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. DCAPE VALUES AREN'T
PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT THEY'RE NON-NEGLIGIBLE AROUND 700-800 J/KG.
THUS, THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH TOMORROW'S STORMS WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HIGHS WILL HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S IN THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS UP TO THE LOW 90S IN
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FOG POTENTIAL IS LESS CERTAIN EACH MORNING.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED TO PATCHY ON TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO
ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS, BUT SHOULD BE GREATER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS WINDS RELAX. MEANWHILE, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD POOL
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY SCANT.
THE REGION WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AND LEADS TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH-WEST
OF THE FL BIG BEND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW AS IT BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH MAY KEEP DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AT LEAST SATURDAY.
WITH THAT, IT'S ALSO QUESTIONABLE IF THOSE MORE COMFORTABLE DEW
POINTS MAKE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
THE FL COUNTIES.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY AWAY FROM THE
GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S (OVERNIGHT
LOWS), WHICH IS VERY WARM AND HUMID FOR LATE APRIL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 906 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ECP AND TLH WITH DHN
ON THE FRINGE WITH MVFR VSBYS TO START. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE
DENSE AGAIN NEAR ECP, WHICH IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN A TEMPO GROUP.
MEANWHILE, AN IFR STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
ABY, DHN, AND VLD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ISOLATED TSRA
WILL BEGIN DEVELOP NEAR VLD AFTER 18Z, WHICH IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN
A TEMPO GROUP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL BECOME FRESH EACH NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, WINDS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WILL BECOME
ONSHORE EACH DAY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET, EXCEPT A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR THE INLETS. MORNING FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR THE PROTECTED WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH GENERALLY
HIGH MIXING HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 89 66 86 / 10 50 20 30
PANAMA CITY 67 86 68 84 / 0 30 10 10
DOTHAN 66 87 66 87 / 20 40 30 30
ALBANY 66 83 65 86 / 30 40 20 10
VALDOSTA 67 87 66 87 / 20 60 30 20
CROSS CITY 64 90 64 86 / 0 60 30 20
APALACHICOLA 67 81 70 79 / 0 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...LF
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