979
FXUS62 KTAE 281733
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
133 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES APPEAR NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
AS WITH OTHER RECENT MORNINGS, THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WILL BE THE AREAS TO WATCH THROUGH SUNRISE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WHILE CONTINUALLY ASSESSING THE NEED FOR ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
IN THOSE PLACES, THE PANHANDLE SEABREEZE PUSHED MOIST AIR FAR
INLAND, WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F ON SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TODAY COULD SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THIS
RECENT STRETCH OF AFTERNOON STORMS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA, AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS. THE FRONT
WAS ALREADY A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE SUNDAY EVENING, AND IT SHOULD PROVIDE THE LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE U.S. 84 CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY. A SOUTHWESTERLY
SEABREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP, PROVIDING NEEDED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND OVER NEAR THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. SO THE AREA FROM I-10 UP PAST U.S. 84 WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
IN TERMS OF THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, THE COVERAGE OF 1.3-1.4 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES HAS EXPANDED QUITE A BIT OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS, THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000+
J/KG) IS FORECAST NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE, FROM
ABOUT MARIANNA EAST TO VALDOSTA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 15-
30 KNOTS, WITH A CHAOTIC LOOKING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SLOW OR BOUNDARY-DRIVEN STORM MOTIONS. STRONGER AND
TALLER STORMS MAY BECOME STEERED BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 10,000
FEET, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STORM TRAINING AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED 40-50 MPH GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORM
DOWNBURSTS, HAIL, AND LIGHTNING.
AFTER SUNSET, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SURGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TUESDAY
MORNING FOG POTENTIAL TO MAINLY THE WESTERN PANHANDLE, I.E. WALTON
COUNTY WESTWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
ON TUESDAY, THE LINGERING BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG A LINE FROM ABOUT DHN-TLH-CTY. THE FRONT
WILL BE WASHING OUT AND LOSING DEFINITION, AS A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
NOSES FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF UP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.
NONETHELESS, A MORE ISOLATED SMATTERING OF PULSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AGAINST A BACKDROP OF
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL BE THE ONLY REMAINING FOCUS.
A SURGE OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
ON EASTERLY FLOW, SO ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE ALL THAT'S POSSIBLE
FURTHER WEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE SEABREEZE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST GULF, OPENING THE DOOR TO AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THURSDAY, AND WE WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURN
SOUTHERLY. NONETHELESS, WE WILL STILL HAVE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PW VALUES OF ONLY
1.2-1.3 INCHES.
ON FRIDAY, UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL A LITTLE AS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES PASSES BY. MEANWHILE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. GIVEN
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS TO ERODE THE MID-LEVEL CAP AND MODERATE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY, A DECENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD, MAINLY FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWARD WHERE BETTER
FORCING WILL BE.
THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR
NORTHEAST GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE BECOMES A
LARGE RANGE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.
NONETHELESS, THE FORECAST WILL BE COUNTING ON DRIER AIR AND THE
EXIT OF FRIDAYS UPPER TROUGH TO CONFINE LOW-END POPS TO JUST THE
MOST FAVORED SEABREEZE ZONES NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ACROSS KVLD, KABY, AND KDHN AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCLUDED
SOME VCTS FOR KVLD, KDHN, AND KTLH ALONG WITH KECP FOR ANY SEABREEZE
STORMS THAT GET GOING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOWER VISIBILITY FOR KECP
WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. OTHER SITES MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP NEAR THE
AERODROME, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT SEE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS SITES QUITE
YET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
AT 2 AM EDT, BUOY 42036 WAS OBSERVING NW WINDS OF 6-8 KNOTS, AND
SEAS OF LESS THAN 1 FOOT. SMOOTH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
UNTIL THE SUDDEN ARRIVAL OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND EASTERLY
FLOW TONIGHT.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER
BANKS WILL BRIDGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL SURGES EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND AGAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY, AND THE FRONT WILL NEARLY DISSIPATE AS IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
THE BIGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
EASTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA DISTRICTS. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL TURN UP STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY, SO STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY, THEN
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FREE OF STORMS. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING OVER THE PANHANDLE. FOG ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT MON APR 28 2025
ONE OR TWO SPOTS TODAY ALONG THE U.S. 84 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH GEORGIA
DOWN TO NEAR I-10 COULD SEE SHORT-LIVED RUNOFF ISSUES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE
HEAVIEST STORMS CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THEIR
CORES. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS COULD ALLOW LOCALIZED SPOTS TO
PICK UP A QUICK 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN.
OTHERWISE, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 66 86 65 / 40 30 40 0
PANAMA CITY 86 68 84 68 / 10 0 20 0
DOTHAN 88 65 87 65 / 30 20 30 10
ALBANY 85 65 85 64 / 40 10 30 0
VALDOSTA 88 65 87 63 / 70 30 30 0
CROSS CITY 91 64 86 60 / 50 20 50 0
APALACHICOLA 82 70 79 70 / 0 0 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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