233
FXUS62 KTAE 281844
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
A STALLING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE ROBUST EAST COAST SEABREEZE THAT MAY HELP TO ENERGIZE
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADD IN THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE ALONG THE EMERALD COAST AND THE BEST OPPORTUNITY, AROUND
40-50%, FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE,
THERE'S A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITHIN ANY OF THE STORMS AS THE STEERING FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE RAIN CHANCES. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY WEST
OF THE FLINT RIVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE QUALITY IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 TO
1.5 INCHES, BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THESE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS, PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN FADING SOME OVERNIGHT.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS ON STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL, BUT AT THIS POINT, THE SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY WEAK
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD LEND TOWARD MAYBE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO, BUT MORE CLARITY TO COME LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ACROSS KVLD, KABY, AND KDHN AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCLUDED
SOME VCTS FOR KVLD, KDHN, AND KTLH ALONG WITH KECP FOR ANY SEABREEZE
STORMS THAT GET GOING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOWER VISIBILITY FOR KECP
WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. OTHER SITES MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP NEAR THE
AERODROME, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT SEE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS SITES QUITE
YET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO OUR MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA.
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NOCTURNAL SURGES UP
TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK, FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, LEADING TO
A DECREASE IN WINDS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE TRANQUIL ONLY AROUND
1 TO 3 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
WITH LESSER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE FORECAST FOR ALL DISTRICTS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY WITH MINRH GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 TO 45 PERCENT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 67 88 64 / 40 30 40 10
PANAMA CITY 86 68 85 68 / 10 0 20 10
DOTHAN 88 66 88 66 / 30 20 30 10
ALBANY 85 67 86 64 / 40 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 88 67 86 63 / 70 30 30 0
CROSS CITY 91 66 86 61 / 50 20 50 0
APALACHICOLA 82 71 81 70 / 0 0 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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