313
FXUS62 KTAE 291425
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
INCLUDED IN THE MORNING UPDATE IS AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE
TEMPERATURES TO BETTER SHOW CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTION INITIATED BY THE SEA BREEZE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND LOWER ALABAMA. THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT THEME OF
LATE. IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH, WE
COULD ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WOULD GO UNTIL 2-3 HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST
TODAY. SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AXIS OF 1.3-1.4 INCH PWATS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM MARIANNA
EASTWARD. THOSE VALUES ARE PRETTY MARGINAL FOR DEEP, MOIST
CONVECTION, BUT LOW- LEVEL FOCUS FROM A RESIDUAL BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND OF COURSE THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
WITH NO LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND A WEAK VERTICAL WIND PROFILE,
STORMS WILL QUICKLY GO AWAY AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF THERMAL
LIFT AND DECAY OF THE SEABREEZE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE CAROLINA COAST OUT TO BERMUDA, WHERE PW
VALUES ARE RUNNING 0.5 INCHES OR LESS. 1000-700 MB LAYER WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WILL CARRY THE DRIER AIR AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND FL BIG BEND REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GET CUT OFF WHERE THE DRY AIR
HAS ARRIVED, BUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST, WHERE MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN.
RESIDUAL DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL SPREAD ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH PW VALUES IN THE 0.9-1.3 INCH RANGE
SIMPLY NOT SUPPORTING AFTERNOON CONVECTION, SO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE
THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, THE PANHANDLE SEABREEZE WILL DEPOSIT SHALLOW MOIST AIR
ONSHORE, SUPPORTING THE RECURRENCE OF EARLY MORNING FOG ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. THE PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS LOWER ALABAMA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOG SETUP.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA WILL RETREAT
SOUTHWARD TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
WILL START TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN MS AND AL ON FRIDAY, WITH WSW FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONT
BRINGING A MOISTER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF AL AND GA.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY
OVER OUR AL, GA, AND INLAND FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY, AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SPREAD ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH
THE FL BIG BEND REGION.
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR AL AND GA COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY, BUT A MOISTER AIR MASS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LINGERING
FRONT WILL STILL SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FL
STATE LINE.
A PIECE OF THE LATE WEEK UPPER TROUGH MAY BECOME ORPHANED AS AN
UPPER LOW NEAR THE FL PENINSULA OR THE BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SETS UP AN OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN. DEEP-LAYER NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MIDST OF THIS PATTERN IS
MOST LIKELY TO BRING DRIER AIR AND A PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS OUTCOME WILL BE
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON HOW THE UPPER LOW PINCHES OFF, AND WHERE IT
PINCHES OFF. EVEN SO, MOST OF THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES SIMPLY
CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH COOLING AND DRYING TO EXPECT NEXT
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CIGS BY SUNRISE
AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS REMAINS LOW.
ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT FORM SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TO VFR BY
15-16Z TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TAFS AFTER 18Z AND POTENTIALLY
LASTING UNTIL 02Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT SURGES TO NEAR
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
MARINE ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TODAY, AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL THEN BE STORM- FREE ON THURSDAY.
NONETHELESS, THE HISTORY IN RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN FOR THOSE SPOTTY
STORMS TO HAVE SUDDEN, SHORT-LIVED GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN. OTHERWISE, WE
WILL BE IN AN EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
A WEAK LATE SEASON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A REBOUND IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 64 87 64 / 40 20 10 0
PANAMA CITY 85 68 82 66 / 30 10 20 0
DOTHAN 88 65 85 63 / 30 20 30 0
ALBANY 87 64 87 64 / 20 20 10 0
VALDOSTA 87 62 89 63 / 20 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 60 87 61 / 30 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 81 70 79 68 / 10 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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