859
FXUS62 KTAE 291742
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
OUR AREA IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN H5 TROUGH THAT'S OVER THE
CAROLINAS EXTENDING DOWN INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
RIDING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA AND WILL HELP CONFINE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM TALLAHASSEE TO ALBANY. THAT SAID,
WE'LL WATCH THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE WORK WEST ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
I-10, WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE EAST OF THIS
LINE. WITH NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING AROUND, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WON'T COOL OFF MUCH, GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 TROUGH MOSEYS EAST AND IS REPLACED BY A RIDGE
THAT WILL BE CENTERED NEARLY OVER THE TOP OF US WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS NOSING INTO OUR REGION, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE HIGHEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVER BASINS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
RIDGING STARTS SLIDING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES WELL TO
OUR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE FLATTENS OUT. THUS, NOT MUCH LIFT
HAPPENS FRIDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER.
A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, IT TOO DAMPENS ON THE SOUTH SIDE, WHICH LEADS TO LESS LIFT
AND SUPPORT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE RETURNS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY GREAT EITHER WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. THUS,
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
SOME EXTRA SUPPORT FROM ANY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. INSTABILITY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS, BUT SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THUS,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOW
TO MID 80S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 50S RETURNING TO KICK OFF NEXT WEEK. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OLD BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT, OR AROUND KTLH AND KECP. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THOSE
CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KVLD AND KDHN, BUT CONFIDENCE AND PROBS WERE LOWER
THAN 20 PERCENT, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. WASN'T QUITE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LOWER VISIBILITY FOR KDHN AND/OR
KECP WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE, BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR FOR
FUTURE PACKAGES. OTHERWISE, A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY MID-
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS
GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS COULD REACH
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS IN OUR EASTERN WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS AROUND 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST
OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE INCREASING OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SHORT-LIVED GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS,
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO MAY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
ONLY LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOOD CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 65 87 64 / 40 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 85 68 82 66 / 30 10 20 0
DOTHAN 88 65 85 64 / 30 10 30 0
ALBANY 87 64 87 64 / 20 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 87 62 89 62 / 20 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 60 88 61 / 30 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 81 70 78 68 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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