156
FXUS62 KTAE 301727
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
127 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY SHOWS A VAST EXPANSE OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA OUT TO BERMUDA AND BEYOND. AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DRY AIR, THE 00Z JAX BALLOON SOUNDING
FROM TUESDAY EVENING OBSERVED A DRY PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE
OF 0.97 INCHES. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 10,000 FEET
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CARRY THAT DRIER AIR WEST TODAY, WORKING
TO ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR EASTERN TIME ZONE COUNTIES. THE
DRY AIR WILL NOT QUITE EXTEND WEST OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND
APALACHICOLA RIVERS. SO THE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND,
FAVORING WHERE THE MOISTER AIR REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
ALABAMA WIREGRASS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY NOSE IN FURTHER WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL TIME ZONE ON THURSDAY, SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION IN THE SAME
WAY THAT IT WILL DO FURTHER EAST TODAY.
ON FRIDAY, WE WILL START TO SEE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS, AS A WEAK PIECE
OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMES INTO PHASE WITH A MID-LATITUDE 500
MB TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE MID- AND UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION, AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TURN SOLIDLY SOUTHWEST.
MOISTURE WILL BE TRYING TO RECOVER BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE LACKING.
THE NEAREST DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR FROM
MOB TO MGM, WITH THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE BRINGING CHANCE POPS TO SE
ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA LATE SATURDAY. BETTER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE FINALLY RETURNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT FRONT, WITH PW VALUES
IN THE SOMEWHAT 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS TYPICALLY CONSIDERED
MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. WE WILL ALSO BE
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY, IN THE BASE OF A FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ONCE
YOU THROW IN A DOSE OF SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE TOO, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SOURCES OF LIFT TO SUPPORT 40-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND 20-25 KNOTS
OF SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GET SOME
GUSTY MULTI-CELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE.
THE FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER, SO 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW AN UNCOMMONLY LARGE
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN ITS PARAMETERS, SUGGESTING LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH ANY SPECIFICS OF THE FORECAST NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF SPIN IN THE BASE OF SATURDAYS UPPER TROUGH WILL CUT OFF
AND BECOME ORPHANED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE
GREATER ANTILLES. YES, THAT'S A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. AN
UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
EFFECTIVELY TRAP THE ORPHANED SPIN FURTHER SOUTH. WHEN ALSO
ACCOUNTING FOR A BIG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S., THIS HAS
THE HALLMARKS OF AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. AT THIS TIME RANGE,
THERE ARE A LOT OF POSSIBILITIES IN WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
BOTTOM RIGHT CORNER OF THE OMEGA WILL SET UP. OF COURSE, UPPER LOW
DEVELOPMENT AT LOWER LATITUDES IS SOMETHING THAT MODELS ARE KNOWN
TO STRUGGLE WITH. IF THE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE BAHAMAS
LIKE THE GEFS MEAN SHOWS, THEN WE WOULD HAVE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW. IF AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER NORTH- CENTRAL
FLORIDA, LIKE THE 18Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWED, THEN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA WOULD STAY WET ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE ARE MANY OTHER POSSIBLE OUTCOMES AS WELL. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS
THAT AN UPPER LOW NEARBY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH THERE AGAIN IS UNCOMMONLY LARGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS. CONSIDERING THE
NUMBER OF DRY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, RAIN CHANCES WILL AT LEAST TREND
DOWNWARD FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, AND AGAIN FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AROUND KECP THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS KDHN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
FEW STORMS. SO INCLUDED SOME VCSH AND VCTS RESPECTIVELY IN THEIR
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP IN AND AROUND KDHN AND KECP ALONG WITH SOME LOWER
VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THAT IN THE TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS, WITH A MODERATE NOCTURNAL SURGE LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
A DECREASE IN WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BREEZES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL CONFINE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY OVER CENTRAL TIME ZONE
DISTRICTS, BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WIPES OUT ANY CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. AT FIRST ON FRIDAY, THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ALABAMA DISTRICTS, THEN EXPANDING
REGIONWIDE ON SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 82 66 82 68 / 20 0 10 10
DOTHAN 85 63 87 64 / 30 10 10 10
ALBANY 88 63 88 63 / 0 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 89 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 79 68 79 68 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page