664
FXUS62 KTAE 301905
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, ESSENTIALLY
CUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN H5
RIDGE, WHICH HAS REMAINED RATHER STOUT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WILL
BE GETTING PUSHED SOUTH BY AN INCOMING TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. STILL, IT'LL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AS WE TURN
THE CALENDAR TO MAY IN THE MORNING; HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
A COLD FRONT ENTERS ALABAMA, BUT WILL HIT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
AREA AND COME TO A CRAWL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER MEAGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS.
ALL THIS IS THANKS TO AN H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
FINALLY PUSHING THE STUBBORN RIDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE
FIRST TROUGH WON'T BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE AND
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A REINFORCING TROUGH, WHICH WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
HERE'S WHERE THE FUN BEGINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM
FRIDAY WILL CRAWL INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
ALLOWS FOR BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ARRIVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITHIN ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
MOSEYS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRINGS A COOLER
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE TO THE REGION. NOW, WHEN WE SAY COOLER, WE'RE
BEING RELATIVE HERE AS FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS WILL NUDGE BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY, OR LOW-MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER
50S FOR LOWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES A BIT AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK. WHY? WELL, THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE H5 TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST. COMBINE THAT WITH A BUILDING H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THERE AND
YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. MODELS DO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF LOWER LATITUDE UPPER-LOWS, SO THERE ARE A FEW POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS TO CHAT ABOUT:
SCENARIO 1: THE UPPER-LOW IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND PROVIDE US WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA.
SCENARIO 2: JUST NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD
PUSH THE RAIN NORTH OF US, BUT KEEP A NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVER US
AND, AS A RESULT, ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCENARIO 3: MORE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE, NORMAL.
ALL THAT SAID, A LARGE NUMBER OF THE ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE GFS AND
EURO ARE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS. THIS GAVE US ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AROUND KECP THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS KDHN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
FEW STORMS. SO INCLUDED SOME VCSH AND VCTS RESPECTIVELY IN THEIR
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP IN AND AROUND KDHN AND KECP ALONG WITH SOME LOWER
VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THAT IN THE TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA KEEPS EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE NOCTURNAL SURGE
OF EASTERLY WINDS IS FORECAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE RUSHES OFF THE PENINSULA. THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGES CLOSER
TO THE REGION AND SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR WATERS ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A
DECREASE IN WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF ON SATURDAY AND WILL TURN WINDS MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, TAKING RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH IT FOR THURSDAY. HIGHER
DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LEAD
TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ALABAMA DISTRICTS. THE FRONT SLIDES CLOSER OVER THE WEEKEND,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. A LITTLE MORE FOG COVERAGE IS
FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY TO
VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 85 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 67 82 68 82 / 0 10 10 10
DOTHAN 63 87 64 87 / 10 10 10 30
ALBANY 64 88 63 89 / 0 10 0 20
VALDOSTA 62 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 20
CROSS CITY 60 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 10
APALACHICOLA 68 80 68 80 / 0 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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