154
FXUS62 KTAE 011544
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1144 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
INCREASED TODAY'S POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ONGOING AREA OF CONVECTION AND
ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE LATEST CAMS ARE INSISTENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR BORDER WITH MOB/BMX,
BUT SATELLITE & RADAR TRENDS PROMPTED AT LEAST A BUMP TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE MODELS UNDERESTIMATE.
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS QUITE A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, RANGING FROM A
DRY 0.8 INCHES NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BETWEEN DOTHAN AND TROY. THE DRY AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST ARE SUPPORTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENINGS 00Z JAX BALLOON SOUNDING,
WHICH OBSERVED A DRY PW OF 0.62 INCHES. WITH ENOUGH FORCING, THE
AMOUNTS OVER ABOUT 1.3 INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED, CAMS GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CHATTACHOOCHEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, SO
WE ARE ADDING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS NEAR THE AL/GA
STATE LINE.
OTHERWISE, EARLY MORNING FOG WILL AFFECT AREAS THIS MORNING WEST OF
A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO EUFAULA. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TODAY WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE BIG BEND REGION TO
EXPAND THE FOG COVERAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WELL EAST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION WILL BE SLOWLY PLODDING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN LIMPING
ALONG TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, THE RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
SO ON FRIDAY, RESIDUAL DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL HANG ON FOR MOST OF
THE REGION, THOUGH AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN WILL BE
GETTING UNDER MOISTER SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF CONVECTION THERE.
ON SATURDAY, A TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BETTER
SCOOP UP DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION AND BRING IT
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PW VALUES WILL HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS TYPICALLY WHAT WE NEED
TO SUPPORT DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, WE WILL GET
RESPECTABLE HEIGHT FALLS AS A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND WE WILL COME UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SO QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
LINGERING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION ON SUNDAY. POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
GUSTY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY,
MOST LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT WILL THEN
BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS IT GETS
BOXED IN BY A STRONG UPPER HIGH NEAR BERMUDA THAT WILL EXTEND ALL
THE WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. WHEN THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW IS ADDED TO THE SUM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
SO WE WILL COME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE CAROLINA OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A COOL
AND DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS, AND BRING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL TRY TO BUDGE
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, AND A FLAT SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER RIDGE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
COMPARED WITH THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WHEN GUIDANCE WAS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK, THERE HAS BEEN
GROWING CONSENSUS WITH PLACEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS THAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY IN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THIS
FEATURE. THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND PROXIMITY OF THE
COLD-CORE LOW WILL HAVE ITS BIGGEST IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL, OR AS
MUCH AS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL, WARM STANDARDS OF EARLY MAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. OCCASIONAL 15 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT ECP WHERE
A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT ECP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AM OBSERVATIONS: PANAMA CITY TIDE STATION (8729108) - SUSTAINED
SSE WINDS AROUND 11 KTS.
PANAMA CITY BEACH TIDE STATION (8729210) - SUSTAINED SSE WINDS
NEAR 13 KTS.
WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) - SUSTAINED SSE WINDS NEAR 12 KTS, 3-4-FT
SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
BERMUDA WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF, THEN
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TURN TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE NORTHERLIES WILL BE INTERRUPTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS BY THE NEARSHORE SEABREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSION WILL POP UP OVER INLAND AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO A DEEP MIXED LAYERS.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY,
FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH DISPERSION. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OVER ALABAMA WIREGRASS AND
CHATTAHOOCHEE VALLEY DISTRICTS. IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME A
RISK FOR ALL DISTRICTS BY SATURDAY. SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTHEAST BIG BEND DISTRICTS, BUT THEN A
DRIER AND POSSIBLY COOLER AIR MASS IS FORECAST NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN TO MOST PLACES, WITH SPOTTY HIGH-END TOTALS
NEAR 2 INCHES. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS WILL MOSTLY
BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANYTHING
MORE THAN SHORT-LIVED LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES. OVERALL, FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 85 63 88 63 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 82 68 82 69 / 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 87 64 87 64 / 20 10 30 10
ALBANY 87 63 89 63 / 30 10 20 10
VALDOSTA 88 64 90 64 / 10 0 10 10
CROSS CITY 85 61 87 62 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 79 68 80 68 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ735.
UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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