998
FXUS62 KTAE 020608
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE 1) FOG THIS MORNING WHICH MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SE AL, NORTH OF I-10 IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE,
AND IN THE WESTERN FL BIG BEND AND 2) A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE GULF BEACHES.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AROUND 5 AM
ET AND DIMINISH AROUND 9 AM ET. A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF VISIBILITY CLOSER TO A 1/4 MILE
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FAVOR DRY AIR
ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. IN GENERAL, PWATS STRUGGLE TO REACH 1 INCH,
ALTHOUGH GREATER MOISTURE POOLING IS EVIDENT AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES
NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A 20% POP
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE; HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE IN SE AL AND SOUTHWEST GA.
AT THE BEACHES, MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F. DESPITE
THE NICE BEACH WEATHER, A SOUTHERLY 6-SECOND SWELL WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT MOST OF THE
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY FROM SE AL INTO THE EASTERN
FL PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FL BIG BEND.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT PIVOTS AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT.
THIS SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF SOME BROKEN SQUALL LINE.
SHEAR ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY AROUND 30-40 KT, COMBINED
WITH MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AROUND 1,000 J/KG. THIS COULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THUS, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED MUCH OF THE AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-
10, IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5). THE COLD
FRONT SLOWLY EASES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER
AND LINGERING RAIN. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES A BIT MORE HOLD SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH, AND RIDGING BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD. THUS, RAIN CHANCES EXIT OUR FORECAST MONDAY WITH TUESDAY
BEING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S BY TUESDAY. SOME WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW RIDE WITHIN THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHICH MAY HELP INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DIVERGES
GREATLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR AT ABY AND VLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AT DHN, ECP, AND TLH, GENERALLY FROM AROUND 10Z-13Z.
IN PARTICULAR, LIFR AT DHN AND TLH, WITH MVFR AT ECP AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF IFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z, BUT
CIGS WILL NOT RECOVER TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS. WINDS SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS,
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT ECP WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY, BUT BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY
OVER SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA AND ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHWEST GA
AND THE FL BIG BEND. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
STORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THE RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN
EMERGING DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS MAINLY WEST OF THE FLINT
AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
FLOOD CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 63 86 66 / 10 0 20 70
PANAMA CITY 83 68 81 67 / 10 10 50 80
DOTHAN 88 63 82 63 / 20 10 60 80
ALBANY 89 63 87 63 / 20 10 40 70
VALDOSTA 90 64 88 66 / 20 10 20 50
CROSS CITY 88 63 86 65 / 10 0 20 40
APALACHICOLA 80 69 80 68 / 10 0 30 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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