248
FXUS62 KTAE 241754
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MOISTURE IS SLOWLY WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION AS EVIDENT BY THE
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FACT DEW POINTS
ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THERE COMPARED TO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THERE'S ALSO A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SEABREEZE AND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT
THOSE CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
THIS EVENING'S FORECAST IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ONGOING CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLUSTERS ARE RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE MOSEYING OUR WAY TONIGHT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(PWATS) SHOW 0.9" TO 1.2" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, INDICATING DRIER
AIR ALOFT. THOSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL RUN INTO THE DRIER AIR
AND SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING TOO MANY INROADS IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THAT SAID, HAVE ELECTED TO CARRY
A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE H5 SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO OUR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BUBBLE UP WITH
THE EARLY-MORNING HEATING. A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS)
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY, SO HAVE ADDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS,
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING.
AN H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THAT SAID, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED THAT
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SUMMER-LIKE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. OF COURSE, IF
THERE ARE MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, WE
COULD BE TOO WARM WITH HIGHS TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
FORECAST PWS REACHING 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES MID TO LATE WEEK. SLIGHT MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO GET QUICKLY PUSHED
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALOFT.
SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY HELP
PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR THE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE WARM IN THE 90S THROUGH AROUND
MID-WEEK BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND
KECP, SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR, PERHAPS
IFR OR LIFT, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW WITH
VISIBILITY QUITE YET. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND KECP AND KTLH SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH THIS
PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL PREVAIL
EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
90 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THAT SAID, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP
STARTING SUNDAY. SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY ON. SHORT-LIVED AND LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE CORES BENEATH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 95 71 95 / 10 30 0 20
PANAMA CITY 74 88 75 88 / 20 20 0 10
DOTHAN 70 92 72 93 / 20 30 10 30
ALBANY 71 93 72 95 / 20 30 10 40
VALDOSTA 71 95 71 95 / 10 30 10 30
CROSS CITY 67 92 69 92 / 0 10 10 30
APALACHICOLA 74 86 74 86 / 10 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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