395
FXUS62 KTAE 250059
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
859 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
NEAR TERM DISCUSSION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RECENT
HRRR RUNS STILL WEAKEN THIS CLUSTER BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO OUR
AREA, BUT WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS IN CASE THE CLUSTER HOLDS
TOGETHER A BIT LONGER THAN THE HRRR SUGGESTS. THERE WERE ALREADY
SOME POPS IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY, SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MOISTURE IS SLOWLY WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION AS EVIDENT BY THE
CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FACT DEW
POINTS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THERE COMPARED TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THERE'S ALSO A WELL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SEABREEZE AND
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, BUT THOSE CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
THIS EVENING'S FORECAST IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ONGOING
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLUSTERS ARE RIDING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE MOSEYING OUR
WAY TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) SHOW 0.9" TO 1.2" ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, INDICATING DRIER AIR ALOFT. THOSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WILL RUN INTO THE DRIER AIR AND SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING TOO
MANY INROADS IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THAT SAID, HAVE ELECTED TO CARRY A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE H5 SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO OUR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BUBBLE UP
WITH THE EARLY-MORNING HEATING. A FEW CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS) HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY, SO HAVE ADDED A 20% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS, MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING. AN H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THAT SAID, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HAVE
RETURNED THAT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
MAINTAINED SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SUMMER-LIKE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. OF
COURSE, IF THERE ARE MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, WE COULD BE TOO WARM WITH HIGHS TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
FORECAST PWS REACHING 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES MID TO LATE WEEK. SLIGHT
MID- LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO GET QUICKLY
PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT. SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH
MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR THE DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE WARM IN THE 90S THROUGH AROUND
MID-WEEK BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
LATER IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
ALL TERMINALS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS, LOW STRATUS OR FOG MAY
DEVELOP, AFFECTING THE DHN TERMINAL AND PERHAPS THE ECP TERMINAL
AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP. THESE COULD AFFECT ALL TERMINALS, HOWEVER POPS ARE
ONLY ABOUT 30%, HENCE THE PROB30 GROUPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL PREVAIL
EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
90 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THAT SAID, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP
STARTING SUNDAY. SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY ON. SHORT-LIVED AND LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE CORES BENEATH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 95 71 95 / 10 30 0 20
PANAMA CITY 74 88 75 88 / 20 20 0 10
DOTHAN 70 92 72 93 / 20 30 10 30
ALBANY 71 93 72 95 / 20 30 10 40
VALDOSTA 71 95 71 95 / 10 30 10 30
CROSS CITY 67 92 69 92 / 0 10 10 30
APALACHICOLA 74 86 74 86 / 10 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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