529
FXUS62 KTAE 251354
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE AIR MASS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA HAS
MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY. SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
IMAGERY SHOWS PW VALUES NOW RUNNING IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE, AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING. THESE VALUES TYPICALLY SUPPORT DEEP, MOIST
CONVECTION. INDEED, WE HAVE A FEW FORCING MECHANISMS TO HELP FIRE
OFF CONVECTION TODAY. OF COURSE, OUR RELIABLE SEABREEZE IS FIRST.
SECOND, THERE IS A LEFTOVER AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA... TAKE NOTE OF THE SE WIND AT CORDELE AND
FITZGERALD, WHILE THERE IS A W AND SW BREEZE AT ALBANY AND CAMILLA
RESPECTIVELY, INDICATING SOME BROAD SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM
ROUGHLY COLUMBUS TO TIFTON. THIRD, A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES SPAWNED A MCS
LAST EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST, QUICKLY WEAKENING AFTER MOVING EAST
OF I-65. NONETHELESS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LEFTOVER MCV
WHICH COULD AID IN DEEPER LIFT TODAY.
SO LOOK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
OR ALL OF THESE FORCING MECHANISMS. RADAR EVEN SHOWS A LITTLE
CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR THE EMERALD COAST ALONG A LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING MCS OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS EVENING, AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FLANKS SOUTH FROM AN MCS THAT WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH ONLY A WEAK VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE, THERE WILL NOT BE THE ORGANIZATION NEEDED TO CONTINUE
THUNDERSTORMS DEEP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. INDEED, SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, THE MOISTER AIR MASS COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG OVER THE
INLAND PANHANDLE DURING THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS THIS MORNING, AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
COMPARED WITH TODAY, LITTLE SENSIBLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH THE SEABREEZE AND A LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA ACTING AS LOW-LEVEL FOCI.
THE MAIN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE THAT A FLAT 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, SO THERE MAY BE LESS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT. BY
TUESDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST, WE WILL COME
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MCSS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF CLIPPING THE ALABAMA WIREGRASS AND SENDING
FLANKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE REGION TO FOCUS LATER
GENERATIONS OF CONVECTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A 500 MB LOW WILL CUT OFF, DEEPEN, AND AMPLIFY A TROUGH SOUTHWARD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL PUSH THE CORE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE
GUIDING TRAIN TRACKS FOR THE TRAIN OF MCSS FURTHER SOUTH, MORE
DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND MOVES EAST, WE WILL COME UNDER
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE DEFINITELY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEEPER LIFT. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A
SHARPER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SO THIS WILL ACT AS A MORE ORGANIZED FEATURE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE A BITE TAKEN OUT OF THE HEAT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, FIRST AS CLOUDS AND CONVECTION INCREASE, THEN AS
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE TAFS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS
MORNING AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. FOG SIGNAL IS HIGHEST AT ECP W/A
BRIEF PERIOD POSSIBLE AT TLH AROUND SUNRISE; VSBY DOWN TO MVFR.
HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORS DHN/ECP/TLH FOR THUNDER, SO INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS THERE THIS AFTN AND EVENING, WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT VLD
WHERE A PROB30 WAS MAINTAINED. A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING AT ECP. WINDS WSW
TODAY AROUND 5-10 KTS, EXCEPT MORE SOUTHERLY AT ECP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE AROUND NOONTIME. CANNOT RULE SOME FOG
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AT 330 AM EDT, BUOY 42036, LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SSE OF
APALACHICOLA, WAS REPORTING WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND SEAS OF
LESS THAN 1 FOOT. THE WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORTING THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, SUPPORTING ONLY
LIGHT BREEZES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST SEABREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO EDGE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST GULF, AND A COLD FRONT WILL START TO SHARPEN FURTHER
NORTH OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. SO WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND FRESHEN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK AHEAD. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE AIR MASS
HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY, RAISING RH TODAY COMPARED WITH
SATURDAY, WHILE ALSO PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS WEEK
WILL PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THAT SAID, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP
STARTING TODAY, PEAKING THIS WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT-LIVED AND LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE CORES BENEATH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 72 94 71 / 20 20 40 10
PANAMA CITY 88 75 88 74 / 20 10 10 10
DOTHAN 91 72 93 70 / 30 30 30 30
ALBANY 93 71 93 71 / 30 30 50 40
VALDOSTA 95 71 95 71 / 30 30 40 30
CROSS CITY 93 68 93 68 / 10 10 20 10
APALACHICOLA 85 74 85 74 / 20 10 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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