918
FXUS62 KTAE 260048
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
THE LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, MODELS STILL INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND AS IT GETS CLOSER
TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE
AL AND SW GA. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING AN EXTRA BOOST OF LIFT IS
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOME OF THE FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE BIG BEND AND S CENTRAL GA FURTHER TO
THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH A DECAYING MCS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING ON APPROACH TO OUR
COUNTIES, BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE AL AND
FAR SW GA AS A RESULT.
FOR MONDAY, THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD A BIT, SHIFTING
SOME OF THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTHWARD AS
WELL. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FL
PANHANDLE FROM THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ALL
STORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE HOT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY THE FL BIG BEND AND S CENTRAL GA WHERE LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STICKS AROUND FOR THE FINAL WORK WEEK OF
MAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT NUDGES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS AN H5 TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT-OFF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW SAGS SOUTH BY MID-WEEK, PUSHING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MORE OVER OUR AREA AS OPPOSED TO JUST NORTH AND WEST, LIKE IS
THE CASE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED INTO OUR AREA FROM AN H5 TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITHIN ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THANKS TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5" TO 1.8".
ALSO, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS
THANKS TO DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE
EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE FOLLOWING THE SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. AROUND
DAYBREAK, LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND AREA TERMINALS,
CAUSING MVFR VSBYS. THIS SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z LEADING TO VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD CREATE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS WHERE THERE ARE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE FOR ALL TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY TO END THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEK AHEAD. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEK, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WHILE THERE ARE DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID, SOME NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOUR THAT
LINGERS FOR TOO LONG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT HAPPENING IS LATER IN
THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 94 71 94 / 20 20 10 20
PANAMA CITY 75 88 74 88 / 10 10 0 10
DOTHAN 70 92 70 92 / 20 20 20 30
ALBANY 70 93 71 93 / 20 30 40 30
VALDOSTA 71 95 71 95 / 20 30 20 30
CROSS CITY 68 93 68 93 / 10 10 10 40
APALACHICOLA 75 85 75 85 / 0 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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