443
FXUS62 KTAE 261512
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1109 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND FUTURE
TRENDS BASED ON LATEST 12Z HI-RES GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCES WERE
INCREASED ACROSS GULF COUNTY AND AREAS AROUND THE APALACHICOLA NF
GIVEN GREATER ACTIVITY THERE THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AL/GA COUNTIES GIVEN THE INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD THAT FAVORABLE SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WITH A STALLED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING WILL OCCUR.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
AT 130 AM CDT, A SQUALL LINE/MCS WAS TRUCKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THERE IS OVERWHELMING
CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE THAT THE MCS WILL QUICKLY FALL APART, AS THE
MCS ENCOUNTERS WEAKER LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHER PRESSURE AND WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECENT SIGNS OF WEAKENING.
NONETHELESS, THE AIR MASS TODAY IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS WILL MAINLY
SUPPORT DISORGANIZED PULSE CONVECTION, OR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS. THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE 1)
ALONG A LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR
STEMMING FROM THE ONGOING MCS, AND 2) ALONG THE INLAND PROPAGATING
SEABREEZE.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS OF POSSIBLE INTEREST IS THE ONE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT WILL RACE EAST
TODAY AND ENTER WESTERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. PAST THERE, IT IS
LIKELY TO DEFLECT NORTH AROUND A FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE NE FL AND
GA COAST. SO THE SOUTHERN FRINGE COULD JUST SKIM THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF OUR SERVICE AREA FROM ELBA TO CUTHBERT, OR IT MAY STEER NORTH OF
OUR SERVICE AREA ALTOGETHER, WHILE WEAKENING LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE SHORT STORY IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR
MASS AND DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. NOW THE DETAILS...
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, OUR REGION WILL STILL BE NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY, AS A STRONG 500 MB
HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF REACHES ITS
GREATEST NORTHWARD EXPANSE INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY LIMIT
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FORGOTTEN AND NATURE COASTS.
MEANWHILE, LOCATIONS WELL INLAND OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL BE
UNDER SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND HAVE A LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHT'S MCS TO ACT AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START NUDGE SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AND UPPER HEIGHT WILL START TO FALL SLIGHTLY, AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STARTS TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THE STEADY
TRAIN OF DAILY MCS PASSAGES TO OUR NORTH MAY DROP SOUTHWARD ENOUGH
TO MORE SQUARELY OR DIRECTLY PASS ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY, A TURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVING A SHARPER
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND DEEPER LAYER LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN
WILL BRING OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK. GEFS ENSEMBLE
PLUMES SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE INTO THE 30-35 KNOT
RANGE IN A PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR DEEP, MOIST
CONVECTION. THIS COULD BRING ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION AND POSE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEK.
BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE OUTCOME OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE
LATEST ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC PUSH THE FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA,
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER NIGHTS TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. HOWEVER, THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HANG UP THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH FROM CROSS CITY TO NEAR JAX, AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT HANG IT UP CLOSER TO TALLAHASSEE AND KEEP THE
RAIN GOING THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AT PERCENTILES IN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
PLUMES FOR TALLAHASSEE, THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE PW VALUES ARE
0.8 INCHES AND 1.8 INCHES RESPECTIVELY, REPRESENTING A HUGE RANGE OF
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IN THAT LARGE RANGE OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
SO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND SIMPLY SHOWS A DIMINISHING
OF RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THERE IS MORE CLARITY, LOW POPS WILL STILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
TSRA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ECP TODAY, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH AT
TLH/VLD FOR A PROB30 BEGINNING 16Z. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
ABY/DHN, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR TSRA; EXPECT VCTS TO BEGIN 16-17Z. WINDS SSW AROUND
5-10 KTS AT THE TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
LIGHT BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF. GENTLE NEARSHORE SEABREEZES WILL RHYTHMICALLY RISE UP EACH
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH AND CROSS THE WATERS AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, LEAVING THE MAIN CONCERN TO BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IN ADVANCE OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WHILE THERE ARE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, LARGE-
SCALE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID, SOME NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOUR THAT
LINGERS FOR TOO LONG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT HAPPENING IS AROUND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 94 71 93 71 / 30 20 20 10
PANAMA CITY 88 74 88 75 / 20 10 10 10
DOTHAN 91 70 91 71 / 50 40 30 30
ALBANY 93 71 92 71 / 50 50 40 40
VALDOSTA 94 71 94 71 / 40 40 30 20
CROSS CITY 92 68 92 70 / 10 10 30 10
APALACHICOLA 85 74 85 75 / 10 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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