715
FXUS62 KTAE 261916
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AS
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO LOCAL INFLUENCES (SEABREEZE) AND
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES (A PASSING TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST) HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL, A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL AT LEAST SERVE AS A
DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN AREAS OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE. AREAS ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SEEN ACTIVITY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH FURTHER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, A BRIEF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST TO 60
MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR SETUPS LIKE THIS WHERE
DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ARE IN PLACE. WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED FOR ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE A FEW HOURS BEYOND SUNSET TONIGHT BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR TOMORROW, ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
FORECAST. LIKE TODAY, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
SEABREEZE AND IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS SYNOPTICALLY. ONE OTHER FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
PRESENCE OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
TOMORROW, RELATIVELY LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LARGELY PREVENT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, SO WHILE A SLIGHT RISK IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES,
THIS RISK IS LARGELY CONDITIONAL. IF THE MCS RETAINS THE STRENGTH AS
IT MOVES INTO OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES, MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD OCCUR.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
|DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THE
REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOME AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT, IT IS ALMOST JUNE AFTER ALL, SO
WILL MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST OUR FLORIDA
COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S. IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO CLEAR THE REGION AND BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S!
OUR AREA WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND AN H5 LOW OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST. THIS PROVIDES US WITH
WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW PERTURBATIONS WILL
ROLL OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY BEFORE THE
H5 TROUGH SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK AS THOSE DISTURBANCES ROLL OVERHEAD.
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT SOME HAIL AND EVEN A
TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD
FRONT LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF, HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN LOW (~20%) RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IT NOT STALLING
WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR THESE RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS DHN/ABY. ACTIVITY WINDS
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE.
ADDITIONALLY, IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS ABY/DHN OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS DAYTIME CUMULUS BEGINS TO FORM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY TO END THE
WEEK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EASE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGHER AND FIRE CONCERNS LOW. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD GET WETTING RAINS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS TO MISS OUT ON THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WHILE THERE ARE DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID, SOME NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOUR THAT
LINGERS FOR TOO LONG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT HAPPENING IS
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND/OR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 93 72 93 / 20 20 10 40
PANAMA CITY 74 88 75 88 / 0 10 10 40
DOTHAN 70 91 71 91 / 40 30 30 70
ALBANY 71 93 70 91 / 50 40 30 50
VALDOSTA 71 94 71 94 / 40 30 20 40
CROSS CITY 68 92 70 92 / 10 20 0 30
APALACHICOLA 73 86 76 86 / 0 10 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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