423
FXUS62 KTAE 270558
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED
AS ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO LOCAL INFLUENCES (SEABREEZE)
AND SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES (A PASSING TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST) HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL, A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL AT LEAST SERVE
AS A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN AREAS OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE. AREAS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SEEN ACTIVITY BECOME
MORE SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH FURTHER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, A BRIEF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR SETUPS LIKE
THIS WHERE DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ARE IN PLACE. WITH SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED FOR
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE A FEW HOURS BEYOND SUNSET TONIGHT BUT MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR TOMORROW, ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
FORECAST. LIKE TODAY, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY
BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM
THE SEABREEZE AND IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS SYNOPTICALLY. ONE OTHER
FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL PRESENCE OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS ENTERING
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW, RELATIVELY LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LARGELY
PREVENT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, SO WHILE A
SLIGHT RISK IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF OUR ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA COUNTIES, THIS RISK IS LARGELY CONDITIONAL. IF THE MCS
RETAINS THE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES, MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WOULD
OCCUR.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THE
REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOME AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT, IT IS ALMOST JUNE AFTER
ALL, SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MIDDLE 70S. IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO CLEAR THE REGION AND
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S!
OUR AREA WILL BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND AN H5 LOW OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST. THIS PROVIDES US WITH
WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW PERTURBATIONS
WILL ROLL OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY
BEFORE THE H5 TROUGH SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK AS THOSE DISTURBANCES ROLL
OVERHEAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT SOME HAIL AND
EVEN A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. WITH THE
COLD FRONT LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF, HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN LOW (~20%) RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IT NOT
STALLING WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, SO
THIS IS REFLECTED WITH VCTS AT DHN, ABY, AND VLD, AND A LOWER
CONFIDENCE PROB30 AT ECP AND TLH. OTHERWISE, GETTING THE EXTENT OF
MVFR OR IFR CIGS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING IS TRICKY, GIVEN AREAS OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF RAIN-COOLED AIR TO COMPLICATE
MATTERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
MID- WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY TO
END THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EASE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGHER AND FIRE CONCERNS LOW. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD GET WETTING RAINS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS TO MISS OUT ON THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WHILE THERE ARE DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID, SOME NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOUR THAT
LINGERS FOR TOO LONG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT HAPPENING IS
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND/OR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 72 93 71 / 20 10 40 20
PANAMA CITY 88 75 88 75 / 10 10 40 20
DOTHAN 91 71 91 71 / 30 30 70 30
ALBANY 93 70 91 71 / 40 30 50 30
VALDOSTA 94 71 94 71 / 30 20 40 30
CROSS CITY 92 70 92 70 / 20 0 30 10
APALACHICOLA 86 76 86 75 / 10 0 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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