271
FXUS62 KTAE 271818
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
218 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FORECAST BELOW REMAINS ON TRACK. STABLE CONDITIONS BEHIND
YESTERDAY EVENING'S MCS HAVE BEGUN TO QUICKLY ERODE AS NOTED BY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING DEWPOINTS/TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND 15Z OBS. THIS
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE MCS TO OUR WEST APPEARS TO
AT LEAST REMAIN ORGANIZED AND TOGETHER. WHILE IT DOESN'T LOOK AT
STRONG AS EARLIER, DESTABILIZATION AHEAD THE LINE AND MODEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF
THE MCS) SHOULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN OR POSSIBLY GROW SOME IN
STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT CONTINUES EAST. MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE LINE STILL WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACROSS OUT SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES, BUT SOME LOW-END
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR OUR PANHANDLE SEGMENTS.
THIS LINE WILL BRING PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH IN THE SEVERE PORTIONS OF THE LINE. A LOW-END
HAIL/TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR THOSE HAZARDS COMPARED TO WIND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. IT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING ALONG A
MOISTURE AXIS INLAND OF THE GULF COAST CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE MCS WILL GAIN SOME LATITUDE LATE TODAY
AS IT NAVIGATES AROUND A STRONG 500 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MEANS THAT THE MCS SHOULD
PASS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE OF THE MCS TRACKING
ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD
FLANK SOUTH OUT OF THE MAIN MCS AND BE A FOCUS FOR SECONDARY
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE MOIST. PW VALUES OF 1.6 TO
1.8 INCHES WILL READILY SUPPORT DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER IN
THE ABSENCE OF A LARGE MCS OR UPPER SHORTWAVE, WE WILL RELY ON THE
SEABREEZE FRONT TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LIFT. STILL, WE SHOULD
SEE QUITE A SMATTERING OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION OVER OUR FL
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTS TO HAPPEN THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM THAT WILL CUT THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL ZIP
EAST, BRINGING ANOTHER MCS INTO OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THERE ON
THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
OUR UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES DIGS SOUTH WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE APPALACHIANS. AS OUR UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PLOWS INTO A MODERATE UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35
KNOTS, A LINE OF STRONG WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
NOT BE ANY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT PLEASANTLY COOL SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 50S POSSIBLE INLAND.
SINCE YESTERDAY WHEN GUIDANCE WAS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, LATEST GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A DRIER PICTURE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES SHOW THE MOST
CONFIDENTLY DRY PERIOD COMING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CLOCK AROUND EASTERLY NEXT MONDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH AND EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO MOVE
UPWARD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REVOLVE AROUND A LINE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DHN/ABY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING TSRA FROM THIS LINE AND POSSIBLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 50
KNOTS IF A SEVERE STORM TRAVELS OVER THE TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH
AT ECP/TLH/VLD MORE ISOLATED TSRA IS FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SLOWLY WANES AFTER 03Z. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AT ECP/DHN AND POTENTIALLY
COASTAL TERMINAL ECP. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY AFFECTING ECP IS IT DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEARBY.
SOUTHWEST AND WEST BREEZES WILL START TO FRESHEN THURSDAY,
BECOMING FRESH OR POSSIBLY STRONG ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY
BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY, A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST
CONFIDENTLY ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DISTRICTS. THUNDER WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN A LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT WILL PASS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, THUNDER CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY
PAUSE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES OR RIVER FLOODING. HOWEVER, NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL BE THE RESULT UNDER ANY INTENSE DOWNPOURS THAT
LINGER FOR TOO LONG OVER THE SAME AREA.
DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, SO THE RISK OF
NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES WILL END.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 93 72 90 / 20 50 20 60
PANAMA CITY 75 88 75 86 / 20 40 20 70
DOTHAN 71 90 71 86 / 40 70 30 80
ALBANY 70 91 71 88 / 40 50 30 80
VALDOSTA 71 94 72 92 / 20 40 20 60
CROSS CITY 69 92 70 91 / 10 20 10 50
APALACHICOLA 75 87 75 85 / 10 20 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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