160
FXUS62 KTAE 271853
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE MCS THAT WILL SLIDE NORTH OF COFFEE/DALE
COUNTIES IN ALABAMA AND MOVE INTO SOME OF OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
GEORGIA COUNTIES IN CLAY/QUITMAN/RANDOLPH AND COUNTIES EAST THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY,
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST ALONG
THIS LINE. THIS SEGMENT SHOULD RACE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WHILE A TRAILING SEGMENT OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THIS BATCH SLOWLY MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR PANHANDLE,
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES. WHILE AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THIS TRAILING
SEGMENT, GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITH THE
NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THESE STORMS TODAY.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO TONIGHT AND COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. A WEAK AREA OF SHOWERS COULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AS THE BASE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DONE OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
FORECAST, BUT WITH THE AREA BEING BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES, AND POTENTIAL REMNANT BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS
AFTERNOON'S STORMS, ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY TOMORROW WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A TOUCH WEAKER
TOMORROW, COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWING THROUGH THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT - AND WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE (PWATS ~1.6-1.8IN), WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUE DEVELOPING. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE GREATER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK, WITH A
MORE SCATTERED REGIME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AREAS OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE,
SUCH AS ANY SEA BREEZE FRONTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP OR FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OTHER NEARBY STORMS. AS A RESULT,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA
IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY - PRIMARILY FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FRIDAY SEES THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST DEEPENS AND SWINGS
EASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE EXACT DETAILS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM ARE A BIT MURKY THIS FAR OUT, HIGH COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH PERHAPS A MORE FOCUSED
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION PUSHING NW-SE ALONGSIDE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNFORTUNATELY WON'T YIELD MUCH IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURE DROPS, HOWEVER IT WILL BRING WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS AND MORE COMFORTABLE APPARENT TEMPERATURES. WEEKEND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 30S IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-HIGH 80S ON
SATURDAY, INCREASING TO THE LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. AS WE REACH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE EASTWARD
ORIENTATION AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH , ALLOWING FOR
MOISTURE AND POPS TO GRADUALLY TICK UP. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REVOLVE AROUND A LINE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DHN/ABY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING TSRA FROM THIS LINE AND POSSIBLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 50
KNOTS IF A SEVERE STORM TRAVELS OVER THE TERMINAL. FURTHER SOUTH
AT ECP/TLH/VLD MORE ISOLATED TSRA IS FORECAST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SLOWLY WANES AFTER 03Z. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AT ECP/DHN AND POTENTIALLY
COASTAL TERMINAL ECP. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY AFFECTING ECP IS IT DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON FRIDAY WHEN WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WETTER CONDITIONS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS RAINFALL, BUT HIGHER RHS HERE
SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THERE AS WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH EACH DAY ARE FORECAST. ONLY FIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES OR RIVER FLOODING. HOWEVER,
NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE THE RESULT UNDER ANY INTENSE DOWNPOURS
THAT LINGER FOR TOO LONG OVER THE SAME AREA.
DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, SO THE RISK OF
NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES WILL END.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 93 72 90 / 20 50 20 60
PANAMA CITY 75 88 75 86 / 20 40 20 70
DOTHAN 71 90 71 86 / 40 70 30 80
ALBANY 70 91 71 88 / 40 50 30 80
VALDOSTA 71 94 72 92 / 20 40 20 60
CROSS CITY 69 92 70 91 / 10 20 10 50
APALACHICOLA 75 87 75 85 / 10 20 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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