323
FXUS62 KTAE 280135
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
935 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE/APALACHICOLA RIVERS.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOLLOWING TODAY'S RAIN.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE MCS THAT WILL SLIDE NORTH OF COFFEE/DALE
COUNTIES IN ALABAMA AND MOVE INTO SOME OF OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
GEORGIA COUNTIES IN CLAY/QUITMAN/RANDOLPH AND COUNTIES EAST THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY,
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST ALONG
THIS LINE. THIS SEGMENT SHOULD RACE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WHILE A TRAILING SEGMENT OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THIS BATCH SLOWLY MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR PANHANDLE,
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES. WHILE AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THIS TRAILING
SEGMENT, GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITH THE
NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THESE STORMS TODAY.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO TONIGHT AND COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. A WEAK AREA OF SHOWERS COULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AS THE BASE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DONE OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
FORECAST, BUT WITH THE AREA BEING BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES, AND POTENTIAL REMNANT BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS
AFTERNOON'S STORMS, ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY TOMORROW WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A TOUCH WEAKER
TOMORROW, COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SWING THROUGH THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT - AND WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE (PWATS ~1.6-1.8IN), WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUE DEVELOPING. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE GREATER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK, WITH A
MORE SCATTERED REGIME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AREAS OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE,
SUCH AS ANY SEA BREEZE FRONTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP OR FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OTHER NEARBY STORMS. AS A RESULT,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA
IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY - PRIMARILY FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FRIDAY SEES THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST DEEPENS AND SWINGS
EASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE EXACT DETAILS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM ARE A BIT MURKY THIS FAR OUT, HIGH COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH PERHAPS A MORE FOCUSED
LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION PUSHING NW-SE ALONGSIDE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNFORTUNATELY WON'T YIELD MUCH IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURE DROPS, HOWEVER IT WILL BRING WITH IT A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS AND MORE COMFORTABLE APPARENT TEMPERATURES. WEEKEND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE LOW-MID 30S IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-HIGH 80S ON
SATURDAY, INCREASING TO THE LOW 90S BY SUNDAY. AS WE REACH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE EASTWARD
ORIENTATION AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH , ALLOWING FOR
MOISTURE AND POPS TO GRADUALLY TICK UP. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A WEAKENING BAND OF TSRA IS BETWEEN VLD AND ABY, MOVING E.
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO VLD IS RATHER LOW. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS,
MAINLY FOR TLH, ECP, AND DHN. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN
SUGGESTING THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE INTO DHN LATE TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THAT POSSIBILITY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT SURVIVES THIS FAR EAST. CIGS WILL RETURN
TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z. PROB30S RETURN AFTER 18Z FOR SOME TSRA,
THOUGH WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR TSRA AT DHN, HAVE MADE A PREVAILING
VCTS GROUP INSTEAD. CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS RATHER LOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ON FRIDAY WHEN WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WETTER CONDITIONS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LESS RAINFALL, BUT HIGHER RHS HERE
SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THERE AS WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH EACH DAY ARE FORECAST. ONLY FIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES OR RIVER FLOODING. HOWEVER,
NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE THE RESULT UNDER ANY INTENSE DOWNPOURS
THAT LINGER FOR TOO LONG OVER THE SAME AREA.
DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, SO THE RISK OF
NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES WILL END.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 93 72 90 / 10 50 20 60
PANAMA CITY 75 88 75 86 / 40 40 20 70
DOTHAN 71 90 71 86 / 60 70 30 80
ALBANY 70 91 71 88 / 40 50 30 80
VALDOSTA 72 94 72 92 / 10 40 20 60
CROSS CITY 70 92 70 91 / 0 20 10 50
APALACHICOLA 76 87 75 85 / 10 20 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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