457
FXUS62 KTAE 281430
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
MODESTLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS SLOWED HEATING OVER THE BIG
BEND A BIT THIS MORNING, AND THIS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS THE SAME. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE DECAYED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND COULD NEARLY DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
LOOKING UPSTREAM OFF TO OUR WEST, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN A
RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. NORTH OF I-10 IN
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI RIGHT NOW, SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES OF ONLY 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES. THIS
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PASS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 1.5+ INCH VALUES CONFINED TO OUR
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF
ONLY 10-15 KNOTS TODAY UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE, SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE FRONT ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR, AND PERHAPS EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER IN GEORGIA, WHERE
THERE COULD BE A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE A MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, THE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER TEXAS AND NORTHEAST
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN JET STREAM SHORTWAVE, WHICH
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING ON
THURSDAY, AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. SO WITH SOME JET STREAM DYNAMICS IN PLAY AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR STRENGTHENING INTO THE RESPECTABLE (BY WARM SEASON STANDARDS)
20-30 KNOT RANGE, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
AND THE KINEMATICS TO ORGANIZE IT. THIS COULD MEAN A ROBUST AND
ACTIVE SEABREEZE SETUP, A MCS LATER IN THE DAY, OR BOTH.
WITH CONVECTIVE STEERING FLOW ON THURSDAY FROM THE WSW, THIS IS
FAVORABLE SPECIFICALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR TALLAHASSEE, AS
IT HELPS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE FORGOTTEN COAST SEABREEZE TO
TRAIN OVER TLH.
THAT DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS BY FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED, AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S..
AS OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, IT WILL PUSH A WELL-DEFINED
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE MODERATE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE IMPRESSIVE (BY WARM SEASON
STANDARDS) 25-40 KNOT RANGE. THERE WILL BE SOME CURVATURE TO THE
HODOGRAPH, ESPECIALLY AS MID-FLOW BECOME MORE WESTERLY THEN
NORTHWESTERLY, AND LOW-LEVEL SW AND W FLOW IS LOCALLY ENHANCED BY
SEABREEZE EFFECTS. WITH SHARP LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OF THE WELL-DEFINED
FRONT, LOOK FOR A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE SEABREEZE CONVECTION. STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS SHOULD BE
THE MAIN THREAT, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ANY
DISCRETE SEABREEZE CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LINE.
AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY EVENING, THE FRONT WILL MAKE A FINAL PUSH
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
WILL EXIT THE SE BIG BEND BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY, AND NORTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE DECISIVE IN PUSHING FRIDAY PM'S COLD FRONT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THIS WEEKEND TO LEAVE OUR REGION IN A DRY AIR MASS
WITH NO RAIN. IN TYPICAL FASHION FOR AN EARLY SUMMER "COLD" FRONT,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY HOT THIS WEEKEND, BUT
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND
MONDAY MORNINGS TO COOL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WITH A FEW
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S. HEADING INTO METEOROLOGICAL
SUMMER, PLEASANTLY COOL MORNINGS LIKE THESE CANNOT BE TAKEN FOR
GRANTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THEN END UP OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY.
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESPOND BY
TURNING MORE EASTERLY. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM WEEKEND LOWS IN
THE 50S BACK UP INTO THE 60S. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AS THE
WEEKEND UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUT TOWARD BERMUDA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY HOT, WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS RISING THE MOST GIVEN THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS. WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT, THE RETURN OF 15-
30 POPS NEXT TUESDAY COULD MANIFEST ITSELF AS A FEW WEAK LOWER-
TOPPED SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT THE TERMINALS BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL TSRA EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AND EVENING, WITH TIMING EARLIER THAN MOST CAMS BASED
ON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT TLH/VLD WHERE A
TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT ABY WITH A
PROB30. VCTS IS INDICATED AT DHN WHERE A GRADIENT IS PRESENT IN
THE CAM PROBABILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS AFTER
08Z THURSDAY AT THE TERMINALS, BUT IT'S AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING, BECOMING WESTERLY DURING THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY, SO WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AS A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE THE
REGION. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS WILL BE SEASONABLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IS COMMON BEHIND
EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONTS, THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OF
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER
THIS WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL DROP A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, WHICH WOULD BRING NUISANCE FLOODING OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IF IT FALLS IN A POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN AREA.
INTERESTINGLY, THE WSW FLOW PATTERN TODAY AND THURSDAY IS
SPECIFICALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN TALLAHASSEE, SINCE THIS
STEERING FLOW CAN BRING TRAINING SEABREEZE STORMS DIRECTLY OVER OR
NEAR TALLAHASSEE.
RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING. BEYOND FRIDAY, THE WEATHER DRIES OUT THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY, SO NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED PAST FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 73 90 72 / 50 20 70 40
PANAMA CITY 88 76 87 74 / 30 20 70 50
DOTHAN 91 72 87 70 / 40 20 80 50
ALBANY 91 71 88 70 / 30 10 80 40
VALDOSTA 92 72 92 71 / 30 10 70 30
CROSS CITY 91 71 91 71 / 20 10 50 30
APALACHICOLA 86 76 86 75 / 30 20 50 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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