141
FXUS62 KTAE 290540
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
140 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM COFFEE COUNTY TO MITCHELL
COUNTY IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED, SOME OF WHICH HAVE
PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. THESE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN MCS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THAT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THIS ARRIVING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE DIMINISHED THANKS TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY, SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
THUS, FOR TONIGHT, HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A
COUPLE DEGREES THANKS TO THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
CIRRUS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS TEMPERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG BEND SO FAR TODAY, BUT STILL MAY SEE A
BIT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL START OUT RATHER
TRANQUIL. BY LATE TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST, LIKELY WITH SOME ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA BY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP TO GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY.
WITH A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MID-LEVEL PULSES, THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE
STORMINESS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
A NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
SET UP A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND WITH MORNING LOWS GETTING
WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S. A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CIGS/FOG MVFR IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AND WILL BE BRIEF IF IT OCCURS. INCLUDED PROB30 AT
ECP/DHN THIS MORNING, IF LINE OF TSRA MAKES IT TO THESE TERMINALS.
TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPOS AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT VLD WITH A PROB30 GIVEN IT'S AT THE EASTERN EDGE
OF ACTIVITY PER THE CAMS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF
AROUND 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO LIGHT ONSHORE FOR SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSE
THE REGION. OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS WILL BE SEASONABLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS IS COMMON BEHIND EARLY SUMMER
COLD FRONTS, THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER THIS
WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) ON FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES SUFFICIENT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST WITH LOW
FLOW CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ON SOME AREA RIVERS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 72 89 66 / 70 30 90 40
PANAMA CITY 87 75 86 68 / 60 50 80 40
DOTHAN 87 70 85 62 / 80 40 90 20
ALBANY 89 69 86 62 / 70 30 90 20
VALDOSTA 91 70 89 65 / 60 20 80 40
CROSS CITY 92 71 88 67 / 40 20 80 80
APALACHICOLA 86 75 85 70 / 50 30 70 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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