119
FXUS62 KTAE 291017
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
617 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A LOW-END
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN PANHANDLE COAST,
AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY.
IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM OFFSHORE PENSACOLA BEACH TO WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COAST
FURTHER EAST NEAR INLET BEACH. OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS, THIS WILL
BE A FAVORED AREA FOR TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS, AND
THEREFORE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OFFSHORE PENSACOLA TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, IT COULD ALSO BE THE
FOCUS FOR A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, INCLUDING A BRIEF
TORNADO.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PARTLY SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SO BEYOND
THIS MORNING, THE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN TIME ZONE COUNTIES STARTING
AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN-COOLED AIR AND THEN SOME
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS EVENING SHOULD PROVIDE A RELATIVE
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THOUGH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH
OF THE COAST COULD BRING SOME LATE EVENING REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FORGOTTEN AND NATURE COASTS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
ONE MORE WET DAY FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRIER SATURDAY.
PHASING OF A FEW UPPER TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
LEAD TO A SOUTHWARD DIGGING AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY. AS OUR MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY, IT WILL PUSH A WELL-DEFINED LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE, WITH 30-45 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH,
AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE SHARP FRONT, AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. IT MAY BE INTERESTING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS FORCING FROM THE FRONT MEETS UP WITH FORCING FROM
SEABREEZE EFFECTS FURTHER SOUTH OVER FLORIDA. NEAR THE SEABREEZE,
A MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD LOCALLY
INCREASE CURVATURE OF HODOGRAPHS AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTH OF
WEST, LEADING TO POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURE STORMS.
THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL, AND A TORNADO COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DROP WELL INTO
THE 50S. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 80S, BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE PLEASANTLY COOL, I.E. IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE WEEKEND UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST ON
MONDAY, AND FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO A WARMING TREND WILL
BE WELL UNDERWAY AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON
MONDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS
MARITIME-SOURCED AIR RAISES PW VALUES A BIT EACH DAY, ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY FOR THE START OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
ASIDE FROM SHRA/TSRA RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CIGS/FOG, MVFR IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AND WILL BE BRIEF IF IT OCCURS THIS MORNING, E.G, VLD.
FIRST CONCERN IS TSRA MOVING OFF THE GULF TOWARD ECP THIS MORNING,
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED 10-14Z; CANNOT RULE OUT VCTS AT
DHN IF ACTIVITY MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH THIS MORNING, BUT THIS IS
A LOW PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE, TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPOS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT VLD WITH A PROB30
GIVEN IT'S AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF ACTIVITY PER THE CAMS. MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY AND WESTERLY BREEZES ON FRIDAY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE, BECOMING FRESH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A TURN TO
NORTHWEST WIND WILL OCCUR. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE EASTERN GULF, SETTING UP
LIGHTER BREEZES, ALONG WITH NEARSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAYS THIS WEEK FOR MOST
FOLKS, CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PASS THE DISTRICTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS AND A RETURN OF SUNNY SKIES THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
POCKETS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS. LARGER AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO DEEP MIXING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AS THE SLOW-
MOVING AREA OF RAIN AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE
PANHANDLE COAST MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST. A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN COULD BRING LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES, WITH FLASH FLOODING MOST
LIKELY SHOULD A QUICK DUMP OF RAIN HAPPEN OVER AN URBAN AREA.
SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, AS A FEW
STRIPES OF HEAVIER RAIN PRECEDE A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH.
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY ONWARD THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK, AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. NO RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 71 89 67 / 70 40 70 30
PANAMA CITY 86 74 87 69 / 80 50 60 30
DOTHAN 84 69 87 63 / 90 40 70 10
ALBANY 87 68 88 62 / 90 40 70 20
VALDOSTA 92 70 90 66 / 60 40 60 40
CROSS CITY 92 71 88 67 / 40 40 80 60
APALACHICOLA 86 75 86 70 / 70 50 60 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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