938
FXUS62 KTAE 291950
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
DRIVEN BY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE, OUR WET DAY CONTINUES WITH THE
SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE NOW MOSTLY
STRATIFORM RAIN MOVES OVER A STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT, ONLY A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS REMAIN FOR THE TIME BEING. LESS STABLE AIR EAST OF I-
75 MAY INVIGORATE SOME ACTIVITY LEADING TO A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS
BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE TRENDING NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ELECTED DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVERAGE NOT GIVING WAY MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE TO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
TOMORROW, WITH A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDECISIVE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SEABREEZE, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS
AND AN ACTIVE RADAR ARE PROJECTED.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
POST FRONTAL WE WILL SEE A NICE DROP IN TEMPS AND RH VALUES. DRY AIR
UNDER STRONG NW FLOW WILL KEEP APPARENT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80'S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND A RETURN
TO ZONAL FLOW BREAK DOWN OUR DRY CONVEYER BELT. AFTER THAT OUR
POSITION RELATIVE TO A BUILDING RIDGE WILL HAVE REBOUNDED ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO START SEEING A RETURN OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY RANGING FROM VFR TO
MVFR, WITH LOWER CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND ANY TSRA. PRECIP WILL
CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A CHANCE FOR SOME LOWERING
CIGS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RELAXING THEREAFTER, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND A RETURN TO A NORMAL SEABREEZE PATTERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT POST FRONTAL. THIS
WILL BE MARKED BY A NOTICEABLE DROP IN RH VALUES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, AS A FEW
STRIPES OF HEAVIER RAIN PRECEDE A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH.
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY ONWARD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK,
AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 91 68 87 / 20 30 30 0
PANAMA CITY 74 87 69 85 / 30 30 30 0
DOTHAN 68 89 63 83 / 30 40 10 0
ALBANY 68 89 63 85 / 30 40 10 0
VALDOSTA 69 91 67 86 / 30 30 30 0
CROSS CITY 70 89 68 87 / 40 50 50 10
APALACHICOLA 75 86 71 85 / 30 30 40 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HUMPHREYS
SHORT TERM...HUMPHREYS
LONG TERM....HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
MARINE...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...HUMPHREYS
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