247
FXUS62 KTAE 290122
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
922 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE STILL REMAINS LIKELY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY,
KEEPING THE ACTIVE DIURNAL SEABREEZE PATTERN GOING. POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH, STARTING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN SE ALABAMA AND SW
GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN ANCHORED BERMUDA HIGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM
MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP NORTHWARD EACH DAY WITH PWATS
SURPASSING 2 INCHES. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE WE'LL HAVE
MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A COLD FRONT
SWINGS SOUTH ADVECTING RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 90S AFTER THE FRONTAL FEATURE
MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS STILL LINGER NEAR DHN AND ECP BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AT TAF ISSUANCE. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AT TLH AND VLD WHERE RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
SUNRISE ARE POSSIBLE, MORESO AT VLD. AFTER 13Z, VFR CONDITIONS ALL
SITES, WITH TSRA ANTICIPATED AFTER 18Z. TLH/ECP HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL, SO FOR NOW, STARTED OFF THIS CYCLE WITH VCTS GROUPS AND
ALLOW FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, DIMINISHING SOME DURING
THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, AND
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
OUR MOST LIKELY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS CALLS FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES SOUTH OF I-10 AND ABOUT 1.5 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF
I-10. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. HOWEVER,
THE NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE OF DOUBLE DIGIT RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED SPOTS SOUTH OF I-10
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING BANDS OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE GET MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN, SATURATING THE GROUND. WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR
THE COAST, THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY RIVER FLOOD CONCERNS, HOWEVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 72 90 72 / 80 30 80 40
PANAMA CITY 90 75 89 74 / 70 50 80 60
DOTHAN 91 71 90 71 / 60 30 80 30
ALBANY 91 71 91 71 / 50 20 70 30
VALDOSTA 93 72 92 72 / 60 30 80 40
CROSS CITY 92 72 91 71 / 60 40 80 60
APALACHICOLA 87 76 87 75 / 70 50 80 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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