928
FXUS62 KTAE 290654
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
254 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A
MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWATS RANGING AROUND 1.8 TO 2.1
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, LOWEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COUNTIES.
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MOSTLY DIURNAL
PATTERN THAT WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS WITH ACTIVITY FIRST STARTING
OUT OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND AS
INSTABILITY OVER LAND INCREASES. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE,
AND A WEAK GRADIENT OF LOWER PWATS ACROSS SOUTHWEST GA, WE'LL LIKELY
SEE INLAND ACTIVITY BEGIN OVER OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND AND DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST GA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROUGH STILL IN PLACE,
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY
INTO SOME OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS GA.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS FORECAST
TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS AND STEERING FLOW FAIRLY WEAK. WITH PWS
FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES EARLY TO MID WEEK, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
EACH DAY. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL LAND
BREEZE/SEA BREEZE CYCLE, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS AND
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE SPREADING INLAND DURING THE DAYTIME.
THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RACK UP SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE PROCESS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS AND SUBSEQUENT
FLOODING WOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF I-10 AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH
LIGHT STEERING FLOW OVERHEAD, STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY NOT MOVE MUCH
AND THEREFORE COULD DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ON A LOCATION AT A
TIME. REPEAT THAT PROCESS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW, AND WE COULD
END UP WITH SOME 10+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR THE COAST INTO MID
WEEK. NORTH OF I-10, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY AND WILL ALSO POSE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING APPEAR A BIT LOWER THAN
ALONG THE COAST.
MID TO LATE WEEK, A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPORARILY PROVIDING AN EXTRA FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE USHERING IN A DRIER
(BY SUMMER STANDARDS) AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS SUCH, FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP
WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LONE
EXCEPTIONS COULD BE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG THIS MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN, MOSTLY FORM 18-00Z, BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
INLAND TERMINALS OF DHN/ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, DIMINISHING SOME DURING
THE DAY EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING,
AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A MOIST AND WET PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
OUR MOST LIKELY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS CALLS FOR
3 TO 7 INCHES SOUTH OF I-10 AND ABOUT 1.5 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF
I-10. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. HOWEVER,
THE NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE OF DOUBLE DIGIT RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED SPOTS SOUTH OF I-10
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING BANDS OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE GET MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN, SATURATING THE GROUND. WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR
THE COAST, THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY RIVER FLOOD CONCERNS, HOWEVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 73 87 72 / 70 60 100 50
PANAMA CITY 89 75 85 74 / 70 70 90 80
DOTHAN 90 72 87 71 / 50 40 90 40
ALBANY 91 71 90 71 / 50 40 90 30
VALDOSTA 91 72 89 72 / 60 40 90 30
CROSS CITY 89 71 85 71 / 70 70 90 60
APALACHICOLA 87 75 83 74 / 70 80 90 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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