755
FXUS62 KTAE 300132
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A VERY MOIST AND SEASONABLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.
SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.8 INCHES OVER SOUTH GEORGIA, TO 2.1 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS.
MEANWHILE, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND NARROW UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS, ADDING SOME
EXTRA LIFT TO THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
SO THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MEANING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL FAVOR INLAND AREAS.
LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING, CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP ALONG
THE LANDBREEZE OVER THE BATHWATER-WARM 85-87 DEGREE GULF WATERS,
WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW TAKING THAT CONVECTION ONTO THE
BEACHES AND PERHAPS INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES ON MONDAY MORNING. IF
STEERING FLOW CAN KEEP ENOUGH NORTHERLY COMPONENT, THEN MORNING
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME MOVING ONSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WASH, RINSE, REPEAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHERE MORNING
CONVECTION CAN MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LONG TERM
(LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL OPEN UP FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. STEERING FLOW WILL
THEREFORE STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY, WHILE CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH THE OPEN TROUGH WILL AID LIFT. THIS WILL MORE
DECIDEDLY PUSH BANDS OR TRAINING LINES OF MORNING CONVECTION
ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY FOR GULF, FRANKLIN, DIXIE, AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
AND THE PERIOD OF MOST HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE THOUGHTS.
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA ON FRIDAY. A REMNANT LOWER LATITUDE LOW WILL GET LEFT
BEHIND NEAR FLORIDA AND THEN BOXED IN AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK OR
BROAD SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST GULF
AND THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE GA/SC COAST. IF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST, WE COULD BE ON A DRY WEST SIDE. IF THE
BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOVES A SURFACE LOW WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST, THEN WE COULD FIND OURSELVES IN A WET
CONVEYOR BELT OF RAIN. SO ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL.
NHC HAS STARTED OUTLOOKING THIS AREA (NORTHEAST GULF TO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST) WITH A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. LAND
INTERACTION WILL BE A BIG INHIBITING FACTOR TO TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MERELY
A WEAK SURFACE LOW. SO SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS LOOK DOUBTFUL.
NONETHELESS, CHECK BACK THIS WEEK FOR UPDATES TO DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHRA/TSRA IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH A
FEW TS ARE IN VICINITY OF VLD AND ABY AT TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT
MOST, IF NOT ALL STORMS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION BY 05Z.
OVERNIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE AT DHN/ABY/VLD, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY, WILL INTRODUCE VCTS GROUPS AT ECP/TLH AROUND 18Z AND LET
FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES TRY TO BETTER FOCUS TIMING AS THESE SITES
HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. TO ITS NORTH,
THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY BREEZES. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WESTERLY
BREEZES WILL FRESHEN A LITTLE, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT, A WEAK AND
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OR
NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PICTURE. ANY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP A WETTING RAIN. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING RAIN NEAR THE COAST
COULD DROP PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10, THOUGH
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-10 AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD FEATURE THE MOST HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
A WEAK BUT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS AND SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL FAVOR SLOW-MOVING LINES AND BANDS
OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL THEN PUSH THE HEAVY RAIN ONSHORE EACH MORNING. THIS SETUP
WILL REPEAT ITSELF EACH MORNING THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STEERING FLOW AND HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOILS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST, AND GROUNDWATER
LEVELS WILL RISE. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY UNTIL THE PATTERN CHANGES LATE THIS WEEK.
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL BE AT GREATEST
RISK OF FLOODING RAIN, THOUGH INLAND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
TOO. SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, LOCATIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. A
COUPLE OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES COULD GET IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES.
DOUBLE DIGIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH CAMS
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BETTER ODDS OF THOSE HIGH-END AMOUNTS FROM
COASTAL GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES ACROSS APALACHEE BAY TO DIXIE
COUNTY.
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE COASTAL FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIMIT THE RIVER FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 87 71 86 / 50 90 50 90
PANAMA CITY 75 86 74 87 / 70 90 80 90
DOTHAN 71 86 71 87 / 40 90 40 90
ALBANY 72 89 72 88 / 40 80 40 90
VALDOSTA 72 89 72 87 / 50 80 40 90
CROSS CITY 71 86 71 87 / 70 80 70 90
APALACHICOLA 75 84 74 84 / 80 90 80 90
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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