924
FXUS62 KTAE 301042
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
642 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER REPEAT OF THE WET AFTERNOON THAT WE
SAW ON SUNDAY AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS IN PLACE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, A PRECIPTABLE WATER (PWATS)
GRADIENT IS IN PLACE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AROUND 1.9" ACROSS
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND AND ABOVE 2.0" ACROSS
OUR FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES.
THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH ACTIVE START TO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR COASTAL AND MARINE ZONES. WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON
HEATING INLAND, EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE INLAND
SLOWLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENING BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
AS THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY AMPLIFIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WE'LL LIKELY SEE GREATER COVERAGE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR MARINE ZONES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH PWATS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWS
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THESE WILL COMBINE FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION PATTERNS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE DAILY
DIURNAL LAND BREEZE/ SEA BREEZE CYCLE WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE LAND AREAS DURING THE DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY DUE TO
POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
LEADING TO VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, THE
BEST CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF I-10 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS COULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8+ INCHES WITH THE BEST
CHANCES REMAINING NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP SHIFT SOME OF THE FOCUS FOR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA (PANHANDLE OVER THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GA). WHILE
OVERALL POPS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE SHORT TERM, THE COASTAL
AREAS AND PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND WILL STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE, SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STILL HAS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OVER TO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE FL/GA
COAST IN A 20% (LOW) CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO SHOW PERHAPS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONT, BUT VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SUBSEQUENT TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE,
MOSTLY AT VLD, ABY, AND DHN. MVFR CIGS DUE TO LOW CUMULUS IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES FROM SUNRISE TO AROUND 14/15Z. ANOTHER
DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT
ECP/TLH. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. ASIDE FROM STORMS, AND AFTER 15Z, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. TO ITS NORTH, THE
NORTHEAST GULF WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AND WESTERLY BREEZES. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WESTERLY BREEZES
WILL FRESHEN A LITTLE, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT, A WEAK AND BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OR NORTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WILL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MOIST AND WET PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW
THROUGH THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10, THOUGH
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-10 AS WELL. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD FEATURE THE MOST HYDROLOGICALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
A WEAK BUT NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS AND SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THE WEAK UPPER LOW WILL FAVOR SLOW-MOVING LINES AND BANDS
OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL THEN PUSH THE HEAVY RAIN ONSHORE EACH MORNING. THIS SETUP
WILL REPEAT ITSELF EACH MORNING THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STEERING FLOW AND HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOILS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST, AND GROUNDWATER
LEVELS WILL RISE. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY UNTIL THE PATTERN CHANGES LATE THIS WEEK.
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL BE AT GREATEST
RISK OF FLOODING RAIN, THOUGH INLAND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
TOO. SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, LOCATIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. A
COUPLE OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES COULD GET IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES.
DOUBLE DIGIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH CAMS
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BETTER ODDS OF THOSE HIGH-END AMOUNTS FROM
COASTAL GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES ACROSS APALACHEE BAY TO DIXIE
COUNTY.
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. THE COASTAL FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIMIT THE RIVER FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 71 85 73 / 70 60 100 40
PANAMA CITY 87 73 86 75 / 70 80 90 70
DOTHAN 88 71 86 72 / 70 40 90 40
ALBANY 89 71 87 72 / 60 40 90 40
VALDOSTA 88 71 87 72 / 60 40 90 30
CROSS CITY 87 71 86 72 / 70 70 90 60
APALACHICOLA 85 74 84 75 / 70 90 90 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...HANER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page