012
FXUS62 KTAE 010507
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
107 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS, POPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED
DOWNWARD ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS SHOWERS WIND DOWN FOR THE NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
THIS AFTERNOON'S SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. WHILE MOST INLAND AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRY TONIGHT,
THOSE ALONG THE COAST HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SEEING A FEW
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AND COULD LEAD TO SOME STREET FLOODING. TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
A WEAK H5 LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWATS) TO 1.9" TO 2.1" ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION, OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY.
THIS KEEPS VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK WINDS ALOFT MEANS THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WON'T BE MOVING AROUND A WHOLE LOT, SO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NOON. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST STORMS, DCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 400-700 J/KG, WHICH IS ON THE LOWER SIDE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OF COURSE, THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR HELPING
TO KEEP DCAPE VALUES ON THE LOWER SIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST ABOVE, AN H5 TROUGH WILL
MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS, HELPING TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS COLD FRONT WON'T REALLY BRING COOLER WEATHER, BUT IT
WILL START TO DRY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST OUT. HOWEVER, THAT WON'T
REALLY OCCUR UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN THE
MEANTIME, WE'LL HOLD ONTO VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD;
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE MIGRATING
INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT NIGHT AND THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL TRUDGE INTO OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IT'S JULY AND NOT MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. MOST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT'S ABLE TO GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND A LARGE PORTION OF
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, KEEPING THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
MEANWHILE, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE ANTICIPATED CLOSER TO THE
STALLED FRONT WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
ON THE TROPICAL FRONT, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS
MAINTAINED A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
IS THANKS TO SOME H5 VORTICITY GETTING LEFT BEHIND OVER THE AREA
AS AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A LOT, AND I MEAN A LOT, OF FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO
COME TOGETHER IN AN IDEAL SCENARIO TO PRODUCE ANYTHING TROPICAL OR
SUB-TROPICAL OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME OF THOSE DETAILS
INCLUDE THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR OVER ANY COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM; HOW MUCH DRY AIR IS PUSHED
IN BY THE H5 RIDGE; AND WHERE IT EVEN ATTEMPTS TO FORM, IF AT ALL.
AS OF NOW, THERE ARE WAY MORE QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAN
ANSWERS. BEST ADVICE IS TO MAKE SURE YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
KIT IS GOOD TO GO AND TO HAVE A WAY OF REMAINING UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE TIMING NUDGING LATER IN THE DAY
FOR SITES FURTHER NORTH. A FEW HOURS OF LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE
ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND WILL FRESHEN THE WESTERLY BREEZES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS;
THEY'LL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
A WET PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL PUSH
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AND WILL
HELP LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR ALABAMA DISTRICTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
AN H5 LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING H5 TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) OF 1.9"
TO 2.1" ARE NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY AND ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COUPLE THAT WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT AREN'T EXPECTED TO MOVE A WHOLE LOT AND YOU HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES, 2" TO 4", FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
IN FLORIDA. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PAINT A COUPLE OF COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WITH 8"+ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF THAT OCCURRING ACROSS COASTAL GULF AND FRANKLIN ALONG
WITH TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY, 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE (FFG) IS OVER 3" FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. ON THE FLIP SIDE, 3-
HR FFG IS GENERALLY 4" TO 4.5", SO ANY SORT OF TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME, BUT IT WAS CONSIDERED AND ONE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN THOSE LOCATIONS RECEIVE.
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FORECAST TO FALL ALONG OR SOUTH OF I-10,
RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 72 87 73 / 90 40 90 30
PANAMA CITY 86 74 88 76 / 90 70 80 50
DOTHAN 86 71 88 73 / 80 30 60 10
ALBANY 87 72 89 72 / 80 30 70 10
VALDOSTA 87 73 87 73 / 80 30 80 20
CROSS CITY 87 72 87 73 / 70 60 90 60
APALACHICOLA 84 75 86 76 / 90 70 80 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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