056
FXUS62 KTAE 011450
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS. WITH PWATS AT OR IN EXCESS OF 2" ACROSS THE AREA,
INLAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE NO ISSUE
DEVELOPING STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS CLOSER TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THANKS TO THE INLAND SEABREEZE
PROGRESSION AND LARGE SCALE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT TREND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST
THIS MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FORECAST PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, BUT
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SINCE THE
REGION HAS BEEN IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN AS OF LATE, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS MAY BE A BIT QUICKER TO
CAUSE FLOODING. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY FIZZLE OUT OVER INLAND AREAS
LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD KEEP LOWS
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SLOWLY DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SLOW/STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
SOMETIME THURSDAY. THE WET PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN RECENTLY IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA, BUT DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH AND WHERE IT STALLS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IN TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES, REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, THE CONSISTENT PATTERN
OF HEAVY RAIN OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING HOURS, TRANSITIONING INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY, WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
LONGER TERM FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO FRIDAY
AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STALLING FRONT GROWS. WHAT MOST GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT IN
IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THIS STALLING FRONT. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS BROAD
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, AND IT BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER AIR, WHERE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW HIGH, OR NOT, OUR RAIN CHANCES GO INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE ZONING IN ON DETERMINISTIC (NON-ENSEMBLE) MODELS WILL LEAD
TO WILDLY DIFFERENT FORECASTS IN THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS AND
LEAD TIMES, THEY CAN PROVIDE INSIGHTS INTO POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT RUNS, DEVELOPMENT LIKE IS INDICATED ON THE 00Z
GFS, WHERE THE REGION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT, WOULD POTENTIALLY YIELD A DRIER FORECAST FOR US THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE 00Z CANADIAN
SOLUTION, WHERE A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS, LINGERS, AND THEN MOVES
WEST, WOULD LIKELY YIELD A WETTER SCENARIO FOR US INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS, A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES IN WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SURFACE LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A BLANKET OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND MAY INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE
ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND WILL INCREASE WESTERLY BREEZES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS;
THEY'LL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP PORTIONS OF SE AL AND SW GEORGIA
DRY OUT A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
AN H5 LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING H5 TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A WET PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) OF 1.9"
TO 2.1" ARE NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY AND ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COUPLE THAT WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT AREN'T EXPECTED TO MOVE A WHOLE LOT AND YOU HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES, 2" TO 4", FALLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
IN FLORIDA. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PAINT A COUPLE OF COASTAL
COMMUNITIES WITH 8"+ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF THAT OCCURRING ACROSS COASTAL GULF AND FRANKLIN ALONG
WITH TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY, 1-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE (FFG) IS OVER 3" FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. ON THE FLIP SIDE, 3-
HR FFG IS GENERALLY 4" TO 4.5", SO ANY SORT OF TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES
AT THIS TIME, BUT IT WAS CONSIDERED AND ONE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN THOSE LOCATIONS RECEIVE.
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FORECAST TO FALL ALONG OR SOUTH OF I-10,
RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 73 87 73 / 80 30 90 20
PANAMA CITY 87 75 89 75 / 80 60 60 30
DOTHAN 88 72 90 72 / 80 30 50 10
ALBANY 89 72 89 72 / 80 30 70 10
VALDOSTA 88 72 88 73 / 70 20 90 20
CROSS CITY 86 73 87 73 / 70 50 90 50
APALACHICOLA 84 76 86 77 / 80 70 80 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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