481
FXUS62 KTAE 020524
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
124 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH TODAY WILL LEAD TO A MORE
UNIFORM WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COLUMN REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWAT AROUND 2.2 INCHES, WHICH
IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR THE DAILY MAX PER THE TAE
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP WITH POPS WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60-80% RANGE
GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
ENSEMBLES, THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATEST NORTH OF I-10 IN THE FL BIG
BEND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GA, WHERE 3-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTHWEST
IN THE GA COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST AL, WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
BEGINS TO WORK IN. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
MORNING WHERE IT MAY FOCUS MORE IN SOUTHWEST GA.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER
POPS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, THE PRESENCE OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVOLVES OVER THE NE GULF AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY, A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
LOWER POPS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SE BIG BEND, CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY OR DEVELOPING WEAK LOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOWER POPS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL, WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL CHANCES IS LIKELY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING AT DHN/ABY AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT VLD. A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS CIGS
SLOWLY LIFT. SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOP TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN
THE ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY INTO
THURSDAY AND WILL INCREASE WESTERLY BREEZES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END
OF THE REMNANT FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS; THEY'LL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
WETTING RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY
EAST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS BY FRIDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND FURTHER WEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DISPERSIONS, WITH POCKETS OF LOW VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, THEN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
BROAD TROUGH, DEEP MOISTURE, AND APPROACHING WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP
WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. HIGHEST ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALIZED FLASH REMAINS A POSSIBLY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO THE SE BIG BEND, WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXTEND INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 74 91 74 / 70 60 60 10
PANAMA CITY 89 76 93 76 / 60 50 30 10
DOTHAN 89 73 93 73 / 60 40 20 0
ALBANY 89 73 92 73 / 70 50 30 10
VALDOSTA 90 73 91 73 / 70 50 60 20
CROSS CITY 88 73 90 72 / 80 60 90 40
APALACHICOLA 87 76 90 76 / 70 50 50 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
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