785
FXUS62 KTAE 021811
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
211 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
GRADIENT IN POPS FOR THURSDAY, WITH HIGH POPS IN THE SE BIG BEND
AND MINIMAL POPS ACROSS SE ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THE
POP GRADIENT AS WELL, WILL HIGHER MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST,
WHERE THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUMMER SUN.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER IN THE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. THE SAME WILL APPLY TO TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DRIER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF,
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FAVORS WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION AND POPS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I10 CURRENTLY AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO AL/GA. PREDOMINATE VFR OR HIGH MVFR TODAY
OUTSIDE OF STORMS WITH MVFR/IFR TEMPO UNDERNEATH HEAVIER
CONVECTION. VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
MVFR AT VLD TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THEN TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN
THE ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL INCREASE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
TEMPORARILY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS; THEY'LL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN
THE ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL INCREASE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
TEMPORARILY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS; THEY'LL COME
WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 91 74 93 / 40 40 10 50
PANAMA CITY 76 94 76 94 / 40 20 10 40
DOTHAN 72 94 73 95 / 10 10 0 30
ALBANY 72 93 74 94 / 30 20 0 30
VALDOSTA 73 92 74 93 / 40 50 10 50
CROSS CITY 72 90 73 91 / 50 90 40 70
APALACHICOLA 76 89 77 89 / 50 40 20 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM....CAMP
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
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