284
FXUS62 KTAE 030041
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
GRADIENT IN POPS FOR THURSDAY, WITH HIGH POPS IN THE SE BIG BEND
AND MINIMAL POPS ACROSS SE ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THE
POP GRADIENT AS WELL, WILL HIGHER MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST,
WHERE THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUMMER SUN.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER IN THE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. THE SAME WILL APPLY TO TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DRIER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF,
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FAVORS WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION AND POPS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUES AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR
ECP, ABY, AND VLD. THESE SHOULD WANE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, IFR-
MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE INTO VLD AROUND 09-14Z. FOR NOW, HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT LIFR/IFR DECK AS MODELS HAVE
WAVERED ON THAT IN RECENT RUNS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR VLD AND TLH WHERE
PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED. LGT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT
N/NW ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN
THE ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL INCREASE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
TEMPORARILY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS; THEY'LL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF
THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND FURTHER WEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH DISPERSION VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 73 91 74 / 80 40 40 10
PANAMA CITY 89 76 94 76 / 70 40 20 10
DOTHAN 90 72 94 73 / 50 10 10 0
ALBANY 90 72 93 74 / 70 30 20 0
VALDOSTA 90 73 92 74 / 70 40 50 10
CROSS CITY 88 72 90 73 / 90 50 90 40
APALACHICOLA 87 76 89 77 / 80 50 40 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM....CAMP
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
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