548
FXUS62 KTAE 030605
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT TODAY FROM THE I-75
CORRIDOR OF GA INTO THE FL BIG BEND, WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE 1000-700 HPA LAYER TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH WILL PIN THE
SEABREEZE CLOSER TO THE EMERALD COAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER.
QUITE A JUXTAPOSITION IN COLUMN MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PWATS DIP TO AROUND 1.0" IN SOUTHEAST AL
(BETWEEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND THE DAILY MINIMUM)
BUT REMAIN AROUND 2.0" IN THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND (NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMO). FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE, THE AVERAGE PWAT IS
1.75" FOR JULY 3RD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GRADIENT IN POPS,
WITH DRY WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST AL AND WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER, THEN
A GRADIENT AS VALUES RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 60-70% FROM LOWER I-75
CORRIDOR OF GA INTO THE FL BIG BEND. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE HIGHER-
RES GUIDANCE TO BETTER DEFINE THE GRADIENT, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES COMPARED TO NBM.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER IN THE FL BIG BEND, WHERE CAMS
FAVOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL; IT MAY ONLY TAKE 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
3 HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE,
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 1K J/KG OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND, WITH
INVERTED-V/ CARET PROFILES NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH, CANNOT
RULE OUT A COUPLE BRIEF PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TRANSLATES INTO
LOWER DEWPOINTS MAINLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS,
WITH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S! IN FACT, THERE IS A
40-50% CHANCE THAT THIS AREA SEES DEWPOINTS AT OR JUST BELOW 65F BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE TO
REPRESENT THIS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. FOR
THIS MORNING, IT SHOULD BE MOST FOCUSED NEAR I-10 IN THE FL BIG
BEND AND IN SOUTHWEST GA, WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL GA.
AREAS FURTHER NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE AND WILL
END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS A RESULT. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND, AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NE FL COAST. IF
THIS LOW DEVELOPS, WE COULD END UP BEING ON THE DRIER SIDE THAN
EVEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EITHER WAY, LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ABY
AND VLD THIS MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AND AT LEAST
MVFR, RESPECTIVELY. AS FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z AND CIGS LIFT,
EXPECT VFR BY LATE MORNING. SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTN AT
TLH AND VLD WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
AT VLD, BEFORE ENDING BY 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN
THE ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS
TODAY WILL INCREASE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES TEMPORARILY. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
REMNANT FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS; THEY'LL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS IN NORTHWEST OF THE FL BIG BEND
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN
BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 75 93 74 / 50 20 60 20
PANAMA CITY 94 76 94 76 / 20 10 40 20
DOTHAN 94 73 94 73 / 10 0 30 10
ALBANY 94 74 94 73 / 20 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 93 74 93 73 / 50 30 50 20
CROSS CITY 90 74 91 72 / 70 60 70 40
APALACHICOLA 90 77 90 76 / 50 20 50 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
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