399
FXUS62 KTAE 040104
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
JUST FURTHER REFINED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND MARINE ZONES IN THE APALACHEE BAY. SHOWERS CURRENTLY
ONGOING WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER THE APALACHEE BAY ZONES CLOSER
TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
A COLD FRONT IS BISECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWATS) BELOW 1.5" FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
TALLAHASSEE WHILE THEY'RE TO 1.8" TO 2.0" TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHY
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AND MEANDER OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS SUCH, MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO FILTER BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A 30% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THOSE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA HAVE A 50% TO 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SEASONALLY HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S.
HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES WITH
ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 110 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS
THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
THE FRONT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL WASH OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA AND
MOVE NORTH. IF THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, IT COULD ACTUALLY
HELP DRY MOST OF THE REGION OUT AND PIN THE SEABREEZE RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING, BUT IT'S
SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING HERE. EITHER WAY, A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AS AN H5 RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS LANIER, CLINCH AND ECHOLS
COUNTIES LOOK TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO,
THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR VLD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNSET ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD VLD RECEIVE
RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN PATCHY FOG AND
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT ARE POSSIBLE. THUS, A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TOMORROW MORNING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WAS INCLUDED.
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE
ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS TODAY WILL
INCREASE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES TEMPORARILY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE,
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS; THEY'LL COME WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW. DRIER AIR ALOFT HELPS REDUCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHER DISPERSIONS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STREET FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN MORE
URBAN AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 93 73 90 / 20 60 20 70
PANAMA CITY 76 93 75 92 / 10 50 30 60
DOTHAN 73 94 73 92 / 0 40 10 30
ALBANY 74 94 73 91 / 10 30 10 40
VALDOSTA 73 93 73 89 / 40 60 10 70
CROSS CITY 72 91 71 89 / 60 60 40 70
APALACHICOLA 77 89 75 88 / 20 60 50 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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