474
FXUS62 KTAE 040546
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
146 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT TODAY FROM THE I-75
CORRIDOR OF GA INTO THE FL BIG BEND, WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE 1000-700 HPA LAYER TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH WILL PIN THE
SEABREEZE CLOSER TO THE EMERALD COAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER.
QUITE A JUXTAPOSITION IN COLUMN MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PWATS DIP TO AROUND 1.0" IN
SOUTHEAST AL (BETWEEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND THE
DAILY MINIMUM) BUT REMAIN AROUND 2.0" IN THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND
(NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO). FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE, THE
AVERAGE PWAT IS 1.75" FOR JULY 3RD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
GRADIENT IN POPS, WITH DRY WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST AL AND WEST OF THE
FLINT RIVER, THEN A GRADIENT AS VALUES RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 60-70%
FROM LOWER I-75 CORRIDOR OF GA INTO THE FL BIG BEND. BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE HIGHER- RES GUIDANCE TO BETTER DEFINE THE GRADIENT,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES COMPARED TO NBM.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER IN THE FL BIG BEND, WHERE CAMS
FAVOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL; IT MAY ONLY TAKE 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
3 HOURS IN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE,
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 1K J/KG OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND, WITH
INVERTED-V/ CARET PROFILES NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH, CANNOT
RULE OUT A COUPLE BRIEF PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TRANSLATES INTO
LOWER DEWPOINTS MAINLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS,
WITH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S! IN FACT, THERE IS A
40-50% CHANCE THAT THIS AREA SEES DEWPOINTS AT OR JUST BELOW 65F BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE TO
REPRESENT THIS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. FOR
THIS MORNING, IT SHOULD BE MOST FOCUSED NEAR I-10 IN THE FL BIG
BEND AND IN SOUTHWEST GA, WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER, PERHAPS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE,
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON SATURDAY. NO TROPICAL
IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER THE TALLAHASSEE SERVICE AREA.
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER, A SWATH OF MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE GEORGIA COASTAL PLAIN. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PW
VALUES WILL HAVE WRAPPED INLAND FROM THAT ATLANTIC IN THIS FLOW,
PUSHING PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND FL BIG BEND COUNTIES. GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW THAT OUR
EASTERN TIME ZONE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THEIR MOISTEST PW VALUES OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS ON SATURDAY. THE AIR WILL REMAIN DRIER OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST, I.E. ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE
VALLEY. SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE FRONT EDGE OR NOSE OF THE MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. CLOSER TO THE COAST, A PINNED SEABREEZE WILL ADD EVEN MORE
LIFT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE FASTER STORM
MOTION. NEAR THE MOISTURE GRADIENT, DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF STORMS.
ON SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST OUT OF THE LOW
CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION, AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS
NORTH OR NORTHEAST CLOSER TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CUT
OFF AND END THE FASTER NORTHEAST FLOW. SO WE WILL BE MORE RELIANT ON
BROAD-SCALE AND ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING, AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,
AS WELL AS A SEABREEZE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE GREATER INLAND EXTENT
WITHOUT THE HEADWIND OF NORTHEAST FLOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A SUBTROPICAL 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH FL ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS RUNNING IN THE 5910-5940 METER RANGE. FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS
AND WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ADD AN ELEMENT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION,
AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE. PW
VALUES IN THE 1.6-1.9 INCH RANGE WILL STILL BE ADEQUATELY HIGH
FOR DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION, BUT CONVECTION WILL RELY MORE HEAVILY
ON COMMON MESOSCALE FORCING SUCH AS THE SEABREEZE FRONT. DAILY
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE REACH THEIR 7-DAY LOWS AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY. WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT, MORE SUNSHINE, AND LESS COOLING
RAIN, MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH MID 90S LOOKING VERY COMMON.
BY NEXT THURSDAY, SOME LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION SHOULD TAKE
PLACE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A COMMON
DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SUMMERTIME FOUR CORNERS HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. THIS TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO BUDGE OUR 500 MB RIDGE SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE FL PENINSULA. OUR SERVICE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MODEST
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS, AND WE WILL COME UNDER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MVFR IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS AT VLD AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH A
LOW PROBABILITY OF IFR. FOR TODAY, A PROB30 WAS APPROPRIATE FOR
AFTN TSRA AT ALL BUT ABY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS WILL SUPPORT GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZES TODAY,
PEAKING AS A MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE ON SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY, AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN
BUILD AND SHARPEN FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE MIDDLE GULF ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ON ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY, THE WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MUCH OF THE WETTING RAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS IN THE
FLORIDA COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, THEN EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HIGH
DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND ON SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF GA
INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND, WHERE IT MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FOLLOW A COMMON
SUMMER THEME. SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS --- MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING VARIETY --- WILL COME WITH LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
BENEATH THE CORE OF STRONGER STORMS. THE RAINFALL RATES WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 73 90 73 / 60 20 70 30
PANAMA CITY 93 75 92 75 / 50 30 60 50
DOTHAN 94 73 92 72 / 40 10 30 10
ALBANY 94 73 91 72 / 30 10 40 10
VALDOSTA 93 73 89 73 / 60 10 70 20
CROSS CITY 91 71 89 71 / 60 40 70 40
APALACHICOLA 89 75 88 75 / 60 50 70 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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