393
FXUS62 KTAE 041744
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING, SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS
ARE DEPICTING A STRONGER EAST COAST SEABREEZE MOVING WESTWARD
SPARKING CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. THIS COULD HAVE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO FESTIVITIES ALONG
APALACHEE BAY AND FROM APALACHICOLA AROUND TO DIXIE COUNTY,
TALLAHASSEE, AND FROM BAINBRIDGE EAST TO VALDOSTA IF THE CAMS ARE
CORRECT. CONVECTION WILL EITHER MOVE OFFSHORE OR WANE TOWARDS LATE
EVENING.
SATURDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING WEST FROM THE GEORGIA LOW
COUNTRY TOWARDS THE GULF COAST ON NORTHEAST WINDS. THE LOW OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS FROM NHC AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND MOVE INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST US. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF A PANAMA CITY
TO FITZGERALD LINE, IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE PINNED GULF COAST SEABREEZE IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND DUE TO THE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WILL BEGIN THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ONCE THE TROUGH
MOVES NORTH AND WEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. MUCH LIKE SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR RAIN
SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF I10 AND UP I75 IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA. INTO
NEXT WEEK, A RETURN TO 2"+ PWATS AREAWIDE AND A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME REGIME IS IN STORE WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO GA/AL ALONG
WITH THE TYPICAL GULF AND EAST COAST SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL
PUSH MID/UPPER 90S LEADING TO HEAT INDICES GETTING CLOSE TO HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR KVLD AND KTLH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPO
GROUPS WERE INTRODUCED. ELSEWHERE, PROB30 GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
KDHN AND KECP. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CEILINGS FOR KVLD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. KTLH MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS WILL SUPPORT GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZES TODAY,
PEAKING AS A MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE ON SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY, AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN
BUILD AND SHARPEN FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE MIDDLE GULF ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WORK WESTWARD AND
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND NORTHEAST TO THE I75 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL LEAD TO
A DECREASED COVERAGE IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. HEADING INTO SUNDAY,
THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE IN THE FLORIDA ZONES AS SURFACE
WINDS BEGIN THE TURN TO SOUTHERLY ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE AND THE
GULF SEABREEZE TO PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND. ASIDE FROM
HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND, NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE NOTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SUMMERTIME, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ON AVERAGE, 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. WHERE THIS
OCCURS, FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. ON
THE RIVERINE SIDE, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 90 72 91 / 40 60 30 70
PANAMA CITY 76 93 74 91 / 10 60 50 70
DOTHAN 73 93 72 92 / 10 30 20 50
ALBANY 72 91 72 92 / 0 50 20 50
VALDOSTA 73 90 72 92 / 20 60 20 70
CROSS CITY 72 89 72 90 / 30 60 50 70
APALACHICOLA 75 88 75 87 / 30 60 70 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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