693
FXUS62 KTAE 051743 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
143 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE GA LOW COUNTRY
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF TS CHANTAL WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS PWATS ARE FAIRLY LOW (LESS THAN
1.5") FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN MOST OF OUR LOCALES OUTSIDE THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHEAST BIG BEND, IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
GET MUCH CONVECTION GOING, IF ANY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, SOME CONVECTION FROM THE EAST APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS WELL AS ISOLATED STORMS IN
THE GULF SEABREEZE ZONE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE CONVERGENCE CAN BE
MAXIMIZED.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE MORNING HOURS THEN CONTINUE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA STATE LINE. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NOSING INLAND WHICH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE, FROM ROUGHLY
PANAMA CITY EAST AROUND THROUGH THE BIG BEND WHERE 40-50% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RESIDE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S NORTH OF
THE STATE LINE AND CLOSER TO 100 DEGREES IN SPOTS THROUGH THE FLORIDA
COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY, WITH DEEP
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
HOWEVER, POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH
THE MID-90S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST. A FEW AREAS MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, A BIT
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BOTH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD
DIURNAL CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR CURRENTLY AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA WITH CONVECTION
BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST GA MOVING SOUTHWEST. HAVE PROB30 MENTION OF
TS AT VLD AND TLH FOR THIS CONVECTION THAT MAY MAKE IT DESPITE THE
DRIER AIR. AT ECP, AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF SEABREEZE AND A PROB30 MENTION AS WELL. DHN AND ABY SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL MOVES
INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR SUNDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SEABREEZE.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS, MAXIMIZING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE
STRONGER NORTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH
DISPERSIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA GOING, THOUGH A GRADUAL TURNING
OF THE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND A MOISTENING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE SEABREEZE ZONES MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA ZONES BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ELSEWHERE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE
SUMMER WET SEASON AND FOCUSED NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10 THRU MIDWEEK.
BY LATE WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION MAY
INTRODUCE A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. RIVERINE
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 95 75 93 / 10 50 10 70
PANAMA CITY 76 92 77 91 / 20 40 20 50
DOTHAN 73 96 74 96 / 10 20 0 40
ALBANY 72 95 74 96 / 0 20 0 30
VALDOSTA 72 95 74 96 / 10 30 0 40
CROSS CITY 72 92 74 91 / 40 50 10 50
APALACHICOLA 76 89 78 88 / 40 40 20 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM....CAMP
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
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