858
FXUS62 KTAE 291617
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1217 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
TRICKY FORECAST FOR HEAT PRODUCTS TODAY. REPLACED THE EXTREME
HEAT WATCH WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON-7PM ET / 11AM-6PM CT.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 108-112F RANGE.
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
FROM 4500- 6000 FEET, WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, ARE
LOWER. ALSO, MOISTURE IS INCREASING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER, WHEN
COUPLED TOGETHER, LEAD TO A LESS MIXING ENVIRONMENT THEN DAYS
PAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE UPPER 90S
BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO LESS MIXING
OPPORTUNITY. EXPECT TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(108-112F)AROUND NOON OR JUST BEFORE BASED ON THE TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
THE TRICKY PART - SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO THE AREA. SOME CONVECTION IS
ONGOING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION, HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SEABREEZE
CONVECTION BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN
PLACE WITH PWATS OVER 2.2 INCHES OR IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AS DCAPES
OF 800-1000 J/KG.
IF THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT PAN OUT OR CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER IS
LATE TO DEVELOP, A FEW AREAS MAY REACH 113-114F HEAT INDICES AND
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, HEAT PRECAUTIONS
ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. HYDRATE, LIMIT TIME IN THE SUN IN THE HEAT
OF THE DAY, WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, KNOW SYMPTOMS OF HEAT ILLNESS,
AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE WEST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL DRIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO OUR
REGION. WE CAN EXPECT IT TO STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S. HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RANGING 105-112 DEGREES FOR THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN MID-70S. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGHS, OUR POPS CHANCES WILL BE
ELEVATED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RANGING FROM 50-70 PERCENT FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWER
CHANCES FURTHER EAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. PWATS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES WILL
BE CONCERN FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ON THURSDAY, THE EASTERN RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FL PENINSULA,
LOWERING OUR PWATS, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES. OUR
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
ABOUT THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY. SO, ANOTHER HOT DAY WITHOUT THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO COOL THINGS OFF. HOWEVER THERE STILL IS A
CHANCE FOR STORMS AS POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON RANGE ABOUT
30-50 PERCENT. SAME IMPACTS AS BEFORE, BUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT IS LESS BECAUSE THE FORECAST PWATS HAVE DECREASED. THURSDAY
NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH,
WEAKENING THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S ARE STILL FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH POPS AROUND 50-70 PERCENT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE LOW 90S, AND EVEN UPPER
80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
HOLD STEADY IN THE MID TO 70S. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES, WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT EACH TAF LOCATION WITH BETTER
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD
START TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED SEABREEZE ZONES SOUTH OF I10
AROUND 17Z THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH.
ELSEWHERE, CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WHILE TRACKING NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
TIMING IS 18-23Z AT TLH/ECP, 19-24Z AT VLD, ANS 21-01Z AT DHN/ABY.
TEMPO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVY STORMS AND
VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 5-10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FEET. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OF
108- 112F BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING WHICH MAY HELP
EASE THE HEAT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT
DEVELOPS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. A WETTER PATTERN TAKES PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS ALL
OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE SE BIG BEND TODAY (TUESDAY) FOR THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS, A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
RAINFALL TOTALING 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED/NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES.
LOCAL RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 97 76 95 77 / 60 20 40 10
PANAMA CITY 94 80 92 81 / 50 30 40 10
DOTHAN 97 75 94 75 / 60 40 60 10
ALBANY 98 76 96 76 / 50 40 50 10
VALDOSTA 98 76 97 76 / 60 30 40 10
CROSS CITY 98 77 95 77 / 40 10 30 10
APALACHICOLA 93 80 90 81 / 40 20 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-
155>161.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page