910
FXUS62 KTAE 301029
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
629 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIVING HEADLINE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES OF
105- 111F THIS AFTERNOON FROM 11AM TO 7PM ET OR 10AM TO 6PM CT.
THE TRI-STATE REGION SITS BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL HEIGHT CENTERS;
ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER THE BAHAMAS. PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA IS OVER 2 INCHES. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ONGOING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS AREA IS NOT
HANDLED WELL IN THE CAMS AND RAISING POPS UP OVER MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL FROM
YESTERDAY.
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS BUILDS WESTWARD TODAY ADDING DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. PWATS DROP THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TOWARDS 1.7 INCHES WHILE
2+ INCHES REMAIN THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
WITH 30- 40% IN THE BIG BEND TO 60% FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS AS DCAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
HIGHS TODAY ARE A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY BUT THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING CONVECTION. DRIER AIR OVER THE BIG
BEND WILL ALLOW SOME MIXING TO OCCUR BUT WILL HAVE LESS CONVECTION
AND MORE SUN. REGARDLESS, HEAT INDICES WILL RUN IN THE 105-111F
RANGE TODAY AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
A FORECAST 595DM HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA FOR
THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY WARM IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE LACK OF RESPITE FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
CONTINUED WARM DEW POINTS, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 106-110
DEGREES. POPS FOR THURSDAY RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES. AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY,
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS
GRADUALLY DECREASE OUR TEMPERATURES HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. OUR POPS WILL BE INCREASING
WITH WIDESPREAD POPS OF 60-80 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. GRATEFULLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
FOR THE LONG TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, FINALLY GIVING US A BREAK. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS
EVIDENT OF PWATS AROUND 2.5". FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, OUR
REGION IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL (1/4) AND SLIGHT (2/4) RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD, WE COULD SEE
A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
MVFR CONDS HAVE YET TO TRANSPIRE AT THE TERMINALS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. THE 12Z TAFS WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION UNLESS CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BEST CHANCES FOR TS TODAY
WILL BE AT DHN AND ABY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE PROB30
AT ECP AND TLH 19-22Z FOR ANY SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. DRIER AIR WORKING
ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SHOULD KEEP LOW RAIN
CHANCES AT VLD AND DO NOT HAVE A MENTION HERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10-15 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FEET. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HOT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FOLKS OUTSIDE
THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND TODAY INTO
THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOME AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
MOVES IN. FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW BUT DISPERSIONS WILL BEGIN
TO CREEP UP SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALING 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED/NUISANCE
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN MARGINAL (1/4)
AND SLIGHT (2/4) RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOCAL RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 94 77 95 77 / 50 10 40 10
PANAMA CITY 91 81 91 81 / 50 10 40 20
DOTHAN 94 75 93 76 / 60 20 40 10
ALBANY 96 75 95 77 / 50 20 30 20
VALDOSTA 96 75 97 76 / 40 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 94 76 94 76 / 20 0 30 0
APALACHICOLA 90 81 91 80 / 30 0 40 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ115.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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